Ethereum Flashes Bearish Weekly MACD Signal – History Suggests a Potential 60% Price Drop
Ethereum (ETH) is once again under pressure as a key technical signal, historically linked to sharp price declines, reappears on its weekly chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned bearish, a pattern that in past cycles preceded a significant drop in ETH’s market value, ranging from 46% to over 60%.
Recent technical analysis indicates that the MACD line has crossed below the signal line on the weekly timeframe—a classic “sell” signal for traders. This crossover has previously signaled the beginning of substantial downturns in Ether’s price. In early 2025, a similar MACD cross was followed by a sharp 60% correction within weeks. A comparable pattern also occurred in mid-2024, resulting in a 46% decline.
This October, the same bearish configuration is forming once again, raising alarms among investors and analysts about a possible repeat of history. Market observers now warn that ETH may be poised for another significant correction unless key support levels hold firm.
Currently, Ethereum is testing the $4,000 support zone—a level it reclaimed in August and has managed to stay above since. Maintaining this threshold is critical for bulls. A decisive breakdown below $4,000 could pave the way for further downside, potentially targeting the next significant support near $3,745, the lower boundary of the descending price channel on the daily chart.
Technical analyst CRYPTO Damus expressed concern about the MACD’s transition into red territory after over 20 weeks in the green. According to him, the last three similar MACD crosses led to major price declines, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Another analyst, Titan of Crypto, emphasized the need for traders to be ready for any outcome, noting that confirmation of the bearish trend could trigger increased volatility.
Adding to the cautious sentiment, trader Koala pointed out that Ethereum is currently undergoing a “weekly breakdown and trend loss,” suggesting that the recent price action is not just temporary sideways movement, but possibly the beginning of a deeper downward move. He warned that acceleration to the downside might come sooner than many expect.
Despite the bearish technical backdrop, not all hope is lost for Ethereum bulls. Elliott Wave analyst Man of Bitcoin believes that as long as ETH remains above $3,899, the possibility of a renewed rally remains intact. In his view, if support holds, the asset could resume its upward trajectory toward the $5,000 mark.
Historical price behavior reinforces the importance of this support level. Back in December 2021, a break below $4,000 led to a brutal 78% correction, with ETH eventually bottoming out around $880 during the 2022 bear market. Today’s traders are eyeing this level closely, hoping to avoid a similar fate.
In parallel, some investors appear to be taking advantage of the current dip. Investment activity from entities like BitMine suggests that institutional players may be accumulating ETH at lower levels, betting on a longer-term rebound despite short-term weakness.
From a broader technical perspective, the MACD is a momentum-based indicator that helps identify trend direction and strength by tracking the relationship between two moving averages. When the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it implies weakening momentum and the potential start of a bearish phase. Importantly, this indicator is more reliable on higher timeframes like the weekly chart, increasing the weight of the current signal.
Market sentiment remains mixed. On one hand, the bearish MACD cross and loss of key support levels hint at further downside. On the other hand, the presence of strong historical support zones and long-term bullish fundamentals—such as Ethereum’s upcoming upgrades and increasing adoption—may provide a floor for prices.
To mitigate risk, traders are advised to monitor critical levels including $4,000, $3,899, and $3,745. A sustained move below these points could open the door to much lower valuations, while a bounce could reignite bullish momentum.
Looking ahead, Ethereum’s price trajectory is likely to be influenced not only by technical indicators but also by macroeconomic factors. These include interest rate decisions, broader crypto market sentiment, and developments surrounding regulatory clarity for digital assets. Any positive news in these areas could act as a catalyst for recovery.
In conclusion, Ethereum is at a pivotal moment. The reappearance of a bearish MACD cross on the weekly chart—an indicator with a track record of preceding sharp declines—has traders on high alert. While the $4,000 support level remains a crucial battleground between bulls and bears, the coming days may determine whether ETH can defy technical odds or succumb to another major correction. Investors should remain vigilant, manage risk appropriately, and stay informed as the market evolves.