Bitcoin wipes out 15 months of bull‑market gains as price crashes back to $69K
Bitcoin (BTC) slid back under the psychologically crucial 70,000 dollar mark on Thursday, abruptly erasing gains accumulated over more than a year of bullish trading. The move took the market’s benchmark asset down to around 69,100 dollars on Bitstamp during Asian hours, its lowest level in roughly 15 months.
The pullback marked Bitcoin’s first sustained return to the 60,000 dollar range since early November 2024 and triggered a sharp wave of forced liquidations. Data from derivatives analytics platforms showed that around 130 million dollars worth of long positions across the crypto market were wiped out in just four hours, underscoring how unprepared many traders were for the severity of the drop.
Coordinated sell‑off fears grow
Market participants increasingly suspect that the decline is not just a routine correction, but the result of systematic selling by one or more very large holders. Longtime trader Peter Brandt described the pattern as “campaign selling” – a term used when a big entity offloads a position in tranches over time rather than in a single block.
Crypto entrepreneur Alistair Milne echoed this view, arguing that “someone enormous is unloading to a deadline.” He suggested that the current wave of distribution began in mid‑January, with coins steadily fed into the market, likely via over‑the‑counter (OTC) desks that then execute sales on exchanges.
This dynamic is reminiscent of previous episodes when large institutional or governmental BTC holders gradually sold down their positions. Such campaigns tend to cap upside moves, create persistent overhead supply, and lead to sharp flushes whenever liquidity thins out.
Key support zones come into focus
The drop to the high‑60,000s pushed BTC into what several technical analysts describe as a critical support area. Trader CW highlighted that Bitcoin has now entered a major demand zone, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively during earlier bull‑market pauses.
Just below current levels sits a particularly watched indicator: the 200‑week exponential moving average (EMA). This long‑term trendline has historically acted as a floor during severe downtrends and is often cited as a “last line of defense” for Bitcoin’s macro bull structure. A sustained break below it would significantly damage the long‑term bullish narrative and open the door to much deeper corrections.
Some traders have floated potential downside targets closer to 50,000 dollars, pointing to unfilled liquidity pockets, previous consolidation ranges, and the lack of strong horizontal support between the mid‑60,000s and low‑50,000s. While not a consensus view, it illustrates how sentiment has shifted from “buy every dip” to debating how far a capitulation could extend.
Bitcoin mirrors turbulence in gold and silver
Bitcoin’s slide did not occur in isolation. The move coincided with a sharp, sudden reversal in precious metals, reinforcing the narrative that macro flows and cross‑asset de‑risking are influencing BTC price action.
Gold, which had just bounced toward 5,100 dollars per ounce the previous day, abruptly fell to around 4,789 dollars before attempting to reclaim the 5,000 dollar region. Silver was even more erratic, swinging between roughly 90 and 73 dollars per ounce as volatility dominated trading.
This synchronized turbulence suggests that some large macro players may be reducing exposure across multiple “store‑of‑value” or risk‑hedge assets simultaneously, rather than crypto alone. When big funds unwind crowded trades, correlations can spike, dragging Bitcoin, gold, and silver along the same path, even if their underlying narratives differ.
Weak US demand and the Coinbase discount
On the spot market side, one of the clearest signals of regional demand imbalances has been the so‑called Coinbase Premium – the difference between the BTC price on the major US‑focused exchange Coinbase (BTC/USD) and offshore venues such as Binance (BTC/USDT).
Recently this metric has turned decisively negative, indicating that Bitcoin has been trading cheaper on Coinbase than on some overseas platforms. In practical terms, that points to depressed demand or more aggressive selling pressure from US‑based participants relative to their international counterparts.
Observers note that this premium is now at its lowest level in over a year, even weaker than after a previous major shock event sometimes referred to as “liberation day” in market shorthand. Analysts warn that as long as this discount persists, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to mount a sustained recovery, since it implies that a key pool of institutional and high‑net‑worth US buyers remains largely on the sidelines or is actively selling.
Whales selling like it’s still the top
Adding to the nervous mood, behavior from some of Bitcoin’s longest‑standing large holders – often called “OG whales” – has turned noticeably more bearish. On‑chain analysts report that wallets associated with early adopters and long‑term accumulators have been sending coins to exchanges and OTC desks in volumes more typical of cycle peaks than of a consolidation phase.
From a price perspective, these whales appear to be acting as if Bitcoin were at or near an all‑time high, even though it currently trades below its 2021 bull‑market peak. Their selling can weigh heavily on the market because it often coincides with thinning retail enthusiasm and relatively fragile leveraged positioning.
At the same time, the fact that some early holders are taking profit does not necessarily invalidate Bitcoin’s longer‑term investment case. Historically, distribution by older cohorts has frequently coincided with the later stages of bull cycles, but it has also occurred during mid‑cycle shakeouts designed to flush out speculative excess and reset funding.
What this means for short‑term traders
For active traders, this environment is defined by elevated volatility, thin liquidity at key levels, and an overhang of potential forced unwinds. Several consequences follow:
1. Leverage is dangerous: The 130 million dollars in long liquidations over a four‑hour window underscores how quickly overleveraged positions can be wiped out when selling cascades through order books.
2. Support zones can break violently: Even widely watched levels such as previous cycle highs or long‑term EMAs can fail if a campaign seller is still in the market and liquidity is limited.
3. Bid/ask depth matters: Traders who only watch price charts without monitoring order‑book depth may be surprised by air pockets – areas with little resting liquidity that allow price to gap down quickly.
4. US session flows are critical: With large selling reportedly concentrated during US trading hours, intraday strategies may need to be adapted around that window, using tighter risk parameters or staying flat during peak uncertainty.
Implications for long‑term investors
Long‑term holders may read this correction very differently. Historically, Bitcoin’s most powerful multi‑year trends have always included brutal retracements that tested conviction. Several perspectives are relevant:
– Macro structure: As long as Bitcoin holds above its prior major cycle base and long‑term moving averages, some investors view drawdowns into support as part of a larger uptrend rather than the end of a bull market.
– On‑chain distribution: While “OG whale” selling can pressure price, it also redistributes supply from very concentrated hands to a broader base of newer holders, potentially making the network more resilient over time.
– Risk‑reward recalibration: A 10–20% correction from recent highs lowers the immediate downside in percentage terms and can improve long‑term risk‑reward profiles for investors with multi‑year horizons.
That said, relying solely on historical analogies is risky. Each cycle has its own macro context – including interest rates, regulation, institutional adoption and correlation with other asset classes – that can materially alter outcomes.
How traders and investors can navigate the drawdown
To manage this kind of environment more effectively, both traders and longer‑term participants can consider a few practical approaches, adapted to their own circumstances and risk tolerance:
– Reassess position size: Exposure that felt comfortable during a grind‑up can become psychologically and financially unbearable once volatility spikes. Reducing position size can help prevent emotional decisions at the worst possible moment.
– Clarify time horizon: Short‑term traders should avoid mixing their trading book with their long‑term holdings. Clear separation of strategies reduces the urge to panic‑sell or FOMO‑buy.
– Use staged entries and exits: Instead of trying to “catch the bottom,” scaling in at predefined levels and scaling out into strength can smooth out the impact of intraday noise.
– Watch structural indicators, not just headlines: Metrics such as funding rates, open interest, spot premiums/discounts and on‑chain flows often provide earlier warning signs than price alone.
– Prepare for both scenarios: A disciplined plan should cover what to do if price slices through key support and what to do if it quickly recovers, rather than relying on a single prediction.
Could this be the end of the bull market?
Whether this drop marks the start of a deeper bear phase or a violent shakeout within an ongoing bull market is the key question for many participants – and one that cannot be answered with certainty in real time.
Arguments that the bull market may still be intact include:
– Bitcoin’s price remains well above previous cycle lows and many long‑term fair‑value estimates.
– Institutional infrastructure, from custodians to derivatives markets, is significantly more developed than in earlier cycles.
– Broader awareness and integration of Bitcoin into macro portfolios, even if modest, are higher than in past bull runs.
On the other hand, the bearish case highlights:
– Persistent selling by large holders and weak US spot demand.
– Increased correlation with other risk assets and hedges, making Bitcoin vulnerable to macro shocks.
– The possibility that the market already priced in many of the bullish narratives, leaving limited upside without a new catalyst.
In practice, markets often resolve such uncertainty through time and volatility. Extended sideways ranges, repeated tests of support and resistance, and multiple “fake‑out” moves are common before a clear longer‑term direction emerges.
The bottom line
Bitcoin’s sudden drop back to 69,000 dollars has effectively unwound more than a year of steady bull‑market appreciation and exposed vulnerabilities in both leveraged derivatives markets and regional spot demand. Evidence points to large, possibly deadline‑driven sellers exerting sustained pressure, while weaker appetite from US buyers is reflected in a negative Coinbase Premium.
At the same time, Bitcoin is now probing major technical support zones that historically attracted long‑term capital. Whether these levels hold or give way to deeper losses will likely depend on how quickly the current campaign selling exhausts itself, and whether new demand steps in to absorb supply.
As always, any decision to buy, sell, or hold Bitcoin carries substantial risk. Market conditions can change rapidly, and no indicator or analysis offers guarantees. Participants should conduct their own research, understand their time horizon and risk tolerance, and avoid committing capital they cannot afford to lose.