Can Bitcoin Bulls Prevent the Fourth ‘Death Cross’ at $102K? Weekly Close Holds the Answer
Bitcoin (BTC) is teetering on a critical threshold as traders brace for a potentially market-defining weekly close. The cryptocurrency has entered a phase of uncharacteristic calm, with price action stagnating just above the $100,000 level. Amid this lull, analysts warn that failure to hold key technical levels could mark the official end of the ongoing bull market cycle.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin’s price remained confined to a tight range, with little volatility and growing anticipation surrounding how the weekly candle would close. Data from major platforms tracking BTC markets reflected subdued trading volumes, as investors hesitated to make bold moves ahead of what could be a pivotal moment.
Trader Titan of Crypto singled out $103,500 as the crucial level to monitor, underlining its importance by referencing Fibonacci retracement metrics. In his view, while a weekly close slightly below this level would not be a catastrophe, a confirmed breakdown in the following week could signal a broader trend reversal. “We’re not at the breakdown yet,” he noted, but emphasized that the margin for error is shrinking.
Meanwhile, the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently sitting at around $100,940, has become another line in the sand for market participants. Trader Max Crypto warned that any close below this average could trigger panic among bulls and reinforce bearish momentum. “A weekly close under this EMA would be extremely concerning,” he cautioned.
Further amplifying the market anxiety is the looming threat of a “death cross” on the daily chart — an ominous technical event where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the 200-day SMA. Trader SuperBro highlighted that this would mark the fourth such occurrence within the current bull cycle. Historically, each previous death cross was followed by a correction phase, though in some cases, it eventually led to a strong recovery. “Each time, we’ve seen a reset to the mean and a bottoming out process,” he noted.
Beyond technical signals, larger macroeconomic factors are also influencing sentiment. The potential end of the U.S. government shutdown and the anticipated reversal of international trade tariffs are being closely monitored by investors. Both developments could inject fresh momentum into risk assets, including crypto.
Cas Abbe, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, suggested that resolving the shutdown could mark the end of what he described as a “manipulation phase” in Bitcoin’s price movement. His analysis pointed to a scenario in which BTC could experience a breakout if political gridlock in Washington is resolved. He shared a chart projecting significant upside potential if macro conditions turn favorable.
However, not everyone shares this optimism. Investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows warned that Bitcoin remains vulnerable. He pointed out that BTC is still consolidating around the $102,000 level and that markets had priced in optimism around the shutdown ending over the weekend — which ultimately did not materialize. The failure of this expectation, he argued, could weigh on prices in the short term.
Adding to the bearish pressure is persistent selling from Bitcoin whales. Large holders have been offloading positions throughout 2025, according to recent data, adding a layer of supply-side pressure that could stifle any short-term rallies.
Despite the heightened uncertainty, some analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic view. They argue that Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, with continued institutional interest and growing adoption worldwide. However, they acknowledge that short-term price dynamics are being heavily influenced by external political and economic variables.
Looking beyond the weekly close, several other indicators are worth watching. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is hovering near neutral levels, signaling a lack of strong momentum in either direction. If RSI begins to dip below 50, it could confirm a bearish trend shift. Conversely, a rebound above 60 may suggest renewed bullish energy.
Moreover, open interest in Bitcoin futures has remained elevated, indicating that traders are still engaged and positioning themselves for a larger move. Whether this turns into a bullish breakout or a bearish breakdown may hinge on how macroeconomic events play out in the coming days.
Another factor to consider is the behavior of stablecoin inflows into exchanges. Historically, an uptick in USDT or USDC deposits can foreshadow increased buying pressure, as traders prepare to re-enter the market. So far, stablecoin activity has remained subdued, lending weight to the idea of investor caution.
In the context of global markets, Bitcoin remains relatively resilient compared to traditional equities, many of which have suffered amid inflation fears and central bank tightening. Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin could still serve as a hedge or alternative asset if traditional markets continue to falter.
In summary, Bitcoin’s immediate future hinges on how it closes the current weekly candle. A close above $103,500 would offer bulls a much-needed breather, preserving the broader uptrend. However, a dip below the 50-week EMA — and especially a confirmed breakdown next week — could mark the start of a deeper correction or even the formal end of the bull market.
As the crypto world watches with bated breath, the coming days are poised to deliver clarity on whether Bitcoin can defy bearish signals and maintain its upward trajectory, or whether a long-awaited correction is finally at hand.