Altcoin wipeout coming? Why one analyst thinks 99% won’t survive
Bitcoin’s rising grip on the crypto market is quietly reshaping the landscape – and not in favor of most altcoins. With Bitcoin’s dominance hovering near 57%, several analysts see this as an early warning that a large-scale purge of weaker tokens is approaching.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe argues that a brutal shakeout is not only likely, but healthy. In his view, around 99% of existing altcoins are ultimately headed to zero, and that outcome is “fully deserved.” He doesn’t frame this as the collapse of crypto as a whole, but rather as a much‑needed cleanup phase.
“Internet bubble 2.0” for altcoins
Van de Poppe compares the current era of digital assets to the early days of the internet. Back then, hundreds of startups raised money, burned through it, and disappeared. Only a small group of resilient companies survived and went on to build the core infrastructure of the modern web.
He believes crypto is running through the same cycle:
– A huge wave of speculative projects launches.
– Capital pours into unproven ideas.
– Most teams fail to ship real products or secure lasting demand.
– A tiny fraction emerges stronger after the bubble bursts.
From that perspective, the impending collapse of the majority of altcoins is not a sign that “crypto is dead,” but a normal process of market selection where only the most robust projects make it through.
Despite this grim outlook for most tokens, van de Poppe says he is exceptionally bullish on the asset class as a whole. He describes the current environment as one of the most optimistic he has seen, even as he expects most coins to vanish over time.
The short list: what he still likes
As the universe of tradable assets expands, his focus has narrowed. Van de Poppe concentrates mainly on:
– Bitcoin – still the primary macro play and liquidity magnet.
– Ethereum – the leading smart contract platform, provided it defends key support levels.
– Select DeFi blue chips, such as Aave – projects with real usage, revenues, and established networks.
DeFi, he notes, is going through short‑term turbulence, sharpened by the recent KelpDAO exploit. He interprets incidents like this as temporary shocks rather than existential threats to decentralized finance. In his framework, hacks and failures are part of the evolutionary process: weak designs break, stronger architectures eventually dominate.
Arbitrum: a potential buy‑the‑dip zone
One altcoin he continues to monitor closely is Arbitrum, a popular Ethereum Layer‑2 network. Based on his latest analysis, van de Poppe sees an attractive buying opportunity emerging if the token were to drop toward the $0.16 area.
This type of call reflects his broader approach: ignore most speculative names, but selectively accumulate a few high‑conviction projects at deep discounts when sentiment is extremely negative.
Echoes of early 2020 in today’s market
Van de Poppe also points to structural similarities between the current environment and the early months of 2020, right before a powerful bull cycle took off. The parallels he highlights include:
– Rising trading volumes after a period of exhaustion.
– Recovery of important price levels that were previously lost.
– Technical patterns that often appear before breakouts.
In that earlier cycle, markets endured months of sideways basing and repeated shakeouts before the next major leg higher. He thinks crypto may be in a comparable “coiling” phase now.
Bitcoin and Ethereum outlook: more upside, but patience required
On Bitcoin, van de Poppe believes the uptrend is not yet finished. He sees room for the price to push toward new highs in the area of $77,000, assuming the current consolidation resolves upward.
For Ethereum, his stance remains constructive as long as it holds above critical support zones. In his view, ETH is still in a broader bull trend and continues to offer attractive “buy the dip” opportunities during market pullbacks.
The key is time horizon: he is not promising immediate fireworks, but he does expect higher valuations for these majors once the current basing phase ends.
A more cautious framework: no “altseason” yet
Not every analyst is ready to declare this a generational buying moment for altcoins. Another research group, Our Crypto Talk, argues that the market has not yet done enough to justify a clearly bullish stance.
Their simple framework for an “altseason” requires two technical conditions:
1. Price must trade above the 20‑day simple moving average (SMA).
2. The 20‑day SMA must be above the 50‑day SMA.
Until both signals align to the upside, they consider the environment hostile for aggressive altcoin positioning. At present, those criteria aren’t met. Bitcoin continues to trade below these key averages, with dominance around 57% – a combination they refer to as a “red zone,” where the path of least resistance for most coins is downward or sideways, not sharply higher.
In their historical playbook, periods when these moving averages are flipped bearish have often preceded extended stretches of underperformance for altcoins, with only short, speculative rallies in between.
Why rising Bitcoin dominance is a problem for altcoins
Several analysts emphasize Bitcoin dominance as a crucial macro indicator. When Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalization climbs:
– Capital tends to rotate out of smaller coins and back into BTC.
– Risk appetite contracts, as traders favor perceived “safer” assets.
– Liquidity in altcoins dries up, amplifying price swings on both upside and downside.
Historically, phases of increasing Bitcoin dominance have often preceded or overlapped with broad altcoin weakness. While individual tokens may still rally on news or hype, the average altcoin tends to lag or fall.
In other words, a dominance reading near 57% is not just a statistic; it signals that the market is in a “Bitcoin-first” mindset, which is usually hostile to long-duration bets on low‑cap names.
Bitcoin’s basing phase: building the next move
Van de Poppe notes that the market is still digesting the sharp selloff from Q4 2025. After such declines, Bitcoin often enters a basing phase – a prolonged period of consolidation where:
– Volatility compresses.
– Positions are quietly rebalanced.
– Strong hands accumulate from weak hands.
He estimates that such a base typically lasts two to four months before a decisive breakout occurs. At present, Bitcoin has been consolidating for roughly two and a half months, placing the market, in his view, near a possible turning point.
If this pattern holds, the next meaningful move could set the tone not only for BTC, but for the entire crypto complex – including which altcoins get a second life and which fade for good.
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Is now the right time to buy altcoins?
Based on the combined views of these analysts, the direct answer right now is: probably not for most investors, at least not in the sense of expecting an imminent, broad‑based altseason.
Here’s why:
– The necessary technical signals for a sustainable altcoin cycle (price above key moving averages and bullish moving average crossovers) are not in place yet.
– Bitcoin dominance is elevated, indicating capital concentration rather than broad risk‑on behavior.
– Many altcoins still carry unproven fundamentals and face intense competition, raising the probability they never reclaim previous highs.
For traders with long experience and high risk tolerance, there may be selective opportunities in specific projects with strong fundamentals and clear catalysts. But the environment is unforgiving to indiscriminate buying.
How to navigate an environment where 99% may go to zero
If you accept the premise that most altcoins won’t survive, your strategy needs to adapt. Several principles emerge from this kind of outlook:
1. Prioritize quality over quantity
Focus on a short list of assets with:
– Robust developer ecosystems.
– Real usage and measurable on‑chain activity.
– Sustainable tokenomics rather than pure speculation.
This typically points toward majors like Bitcoin and Ethereum, plus a limited number of DeFi and infrastructure plays.
2. Treat most altcoins as trades, not investments
If 99% are likely to trend to zero over a long enough timeline, then:
– Long‑term “hold forever” strategies in low‑quality names are dangerous.
– Tight risk management and predefined exit plans become essential.
– Position sizing should reflect the probability that any single token could fail.
3. Use Bitcoin and ETH as benchmarks
When evaluating whether to hold an altcoin:
– Compare its performance to BTC and ETH over multiple months.
– If it consistently underperforms in both bull and sideways markets, that’s a red flag.
– Consider whether you would be better off simply holding the majors instead.
4. Wait for macro confirmations before going heavy into alts
The more conservative approach is to wait until:
– Bitcoin breaks convincingly above its key moving averages.
– Overall market structure turns clearly bullish.
– Dominance starts to roll over, hinting at capital rotation into altcoins.
Historically, jumping into alts before these signals can tie up capital in dead money or trap investors in deep drawdowns.
What could eventually trigger a real altseason?
Even in a scenario where most coins fail, a minority is likely to survive and thrive. A genuine altseason – not a few days of meme rallies – typically requires several conditions to align:
– Bitcoin stabilization or slow uptrend
Explosive BTC moves in either direction often suppress altcoins. Alts tend to perform best when Bitcoin is grinding higher or moving sideways after a strong run.
– Declining Bitcoin dominance
A consistent downturn in dominance usually means capital is rotating into higher‑risk assets.
– Improved macro backdrop
Lower global interest rates, risk‑on sentiment in traditional markets, or the launch of major crypto products can all improve conditions for altcoins.
– Clear narratives and real adoption
In past cycles, themes like DeFi, NFTs, and Layer‑2 scaling drove concentrated flows into specific sectors. The next altseason is likely to form around new or maturing narratives (for example, real‑world asset tokenization, modular blockchains, or advanced DeFi primitives) – not random coins without a story or use case.
Until such catalysts emerge and are reflected in price structure and technicals, assuming a repeat of past “generational wealth” altseasons may be premature.
Practical takeaways for current and prospective altcoin buyers
If you are considering altcoins in the current environment, these practical guidelines can help align with the analysts’ perspectives:
– Be extremely selective
Ask what real problem the project solves, whether there is genuine usage, and what competitive edge it has.
– Respect technical signals
Look for alignment with higher‑timeframe indicators such as moving averages, support/resistance levels, and volume patterns rather than relying on short‑term noise.
– Scale in slowly, not all at once
In uncertain phases, gradual accumulation (if you have conviction) can reduce timing risk compared to a lump‑sum entry.
– Accept that many positions will be wrong
If the “99% to zero” thesis plays out, your edge will come from minimizing exposure to the losers, not from predicting every winner.
– Do not ignore Bitcoin and Ethereum
For many participants, exposure to BTC and ETH may provide a more efficient risk‑return profile than chasing smaller names, especially before altseason signals are confirmed.
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The collision of two narratives – an extremely bullish long‑term outlook for crypto and the expectation that almost all altcoins will ultimately fail – defines the current market. For now, Bitcoin’s dominance, the absence of key technical confirmations, and structural fragility across much of the altcoin universe suggest caution.
A real opportunity set in altcoins is likely to emerge only after the ongoing cleanup is further along, Bitcoin finishes its basing phase, and market structure decisively turns in favor of risk. Until then, patience, selectivity, and a clear preference for quality over sheer variety may be the best strategy.