XDC Network’s long-term bet: Is a deeper correction on the horizon for XDC holders?
XDC Network’s native token has cooled slightly in the past day, slipping 0.76%. Zoom out to a broader timeframe, however, and the picture looks more resilient: on the weekly chart, XDC still shows a gain of 6.13%. That performance stands out when compared to Bitcoin’s 12% drop over the same period, suggesting that, under the surface, XDC might be showing relative strength despite broader market weakness.
Interestingly, this resilience has not been driven by any obvious, short-term, token-specific news. On the contrary, the network’s on-chain metrics have not been particularly impressive recently. Previous analyses have already pointed out that XDC belongs to a cohort of Layer 1 projects with comparatively high market capitalizations but notably low user activity.
With a market cap sitting around 706 million dollars, XDC looks sizable on paper. Yet daily active users have plunged by roughly 84% from their 2021 peak, dropping to about 45,000. This sharp decline hints at subdued demand for the network’s on-chain services, which raises questions about immediate utility and user engagement on the protocol.
Market structure data adds another layer of nuance. Metrics from major analytics platforms indicate that the spot trading volume “bubble map” has moved into a cooling phase. In practical terms, this suggests that trading activity is receding rather than heating up. While overheated conditions often precede local tops, a cooling market does not automatically signal that a bottom is in place. Instead, it implies a more neutral, indecisive phase where neither buyers nor sellers are fully in control.
The spot taker cumulative volume delta (CVD) reinforces this idea of equilibrium. Over the last three weeks, CVD has drifted into a neutral zone after several months of taker-sell dominance that began in October. This transition can be read as a sign that persistent sell pressure is losing momentum. Put differently, aggressive sellers no longer dictate the market to the same degree, which may give room for accumulation or sideways consolidation.
On the development front, XDC has been quietly laying groundwork for its long-term strategy. On 30 January, the network successfully executed a hardfork that strengthened its core infrastructure. The upgrade is aligned with XDC’s emphasis on real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and the broader mission of integrating traditional financial instruments with blockchain rails.
This direction is further underscored by its collaboration with Brazilian fintech firm Liqi Digital Assets. Announced in April 2025, the partnership aims to bring RWAs, decentralized finance, cross-border payments, and trade finance instruments onto the XDC chain. Together, they have already passed a meaningful milestone: more than 100 million dollars’ worth of real-world assets have been tokenized on XDC.
The roadmap does not stop there. The partners have set an ambitious target of reaching 500 million dollars in RWA issuances in 2026. If successful, this would demonstrate that XDC’s infrastructure genuinely lowers the barriers to tokenizing and managing debt and credit instruments on-chain. For institutional players looking for transparent, programmable, and globally accessible debt markets, this is a potentially powerful value proposition.
Another key pillar of XDC’s enterprise-first strategy is its partnership with Brazil’s VERT Capital. Rather than chasing short-lived retail hype, XDC positions itself as a chain tailored for institutional and corporate users. The collaboration aims to tokenize up to 1 billion dollars in debt and receivables on the XDC Network. This type of large-scale issuance is more in line with traditional capital markets structures than with speculative retail trading, and it shows where the project sees its core growth engine.
From a price-action standpoint, however, the token remains under pressure. At the time of writing, XDC trades around 0.037 dollars, and the broader trend remains bearish. Technical analysis points to the 0.022 region as a crucial support level that could be revisited in the coming weeks if selling persists. This zone has acted as a major demand area since June 2022, making it a historically important line in the sand for long-term holders.
Should XDC revisit 0.0227 dollars, a subsequent period of consolidation appears likely. In such a scenario, the token could spend time carving out a trading range below the 0.03 level. That sort of sideways structure often becomes a battleground between accumulation and distribution. For patient, long-term investors, an established range in this zone might offer a new opportunity to build positions if they believe in the network’s RWA-centric thesis.
How to interpret XDC’s “low activity but strong narrative” paradox
At first glance, there is a clear contradiction: user activity has dropped sharply, yet the project is securing multi-hundred-million-dollar RWA milestones and institutional partnerships. The key to reconciling this lies in understanding the type of adoption XDC is pursuing.
Retail-driven Layer 1s usually show high wallet counts, constant NFT minting, and active DeFi speculation. Enterprise-focused chains, on the other hand, can operate with comparatively fewer on-chain accounts while still moving significant financial value. XDC seems to be leaning toward the latter model, prioritizing quality and scale of usage over sheer quantity of daily active wallets.
This does not erase the risk: low on-chain activity can limit network effects, developer interest, and ecosystem vibrancy. But it does contextualize why XDC’s team appears more concerned with building regulatory-friendly infrastructure, compliant tokenization frameworks, and long-term partnerships than with short-term user spikes.
What could drive the next major move for XDC?
Several potential catalysts stand out for XDC over the medium to long term:
1. Expansion of RWA issuances
Reaching or surpassing the 500 million dollar RWA target in 2026 would be a strong fundamental signal. Each new issuance increases on-chain volume, fee generation, and visibility among traditional finance institutions.
2. Additional institutional partnerships
More deals similar to those with Liqi Digital Assets and VERT Capital—particularly in other jurisdictions—could strengthen the narrative that XDC is becoming an international hub for tokenized credit markets and trade finance.
3. Improved on-chain user tools
If XDC can make it easier for non-technical entities to issue, manage, and settle tokenized instruments—through wallets, custodial services, and compliance-layer integrations—network stickiness could improve even without a retail-centric push.
4. Macro environment for tokenization and RWAs
Growing regulatory clarity and institutional acceptance of tokenized treasuries, bonds, and receivables could create tailwinds for any chain positioned as an RWA infrastructure layer. In that context, XDC’s current partnerships could look early rather than late.
Risks traders and investors should consider
Despite the potential, XDC is not without significant risk factors:
– Sustained low on-chain engagement could make it harder to attract new developers and projects, limiting the ecosystem to a handful of institutional use cases.
– Competition in the RWA and enterprise blockchain niche is intensifying, with multiple networks vying to become the default settlement layer for tokenized assets.
– Regulatory shifts or unfavorable rulings around tokenization, securities classification, or cross-border lending could slow adoption or force structural changes to existing deals.
– Technical and execution risks exist whenever a network implements hardforks and complex institutional integrations. Bugs, delays, or security incidents could quickly undermine market confidence.
Strategic takeaways for different types of market participants
– Short-term traders may focus on the technical levels highlighted earlier: 0.037 as a current reference point, 0.03 as a psychological threshold, and 0.022–0.0227 as a key support zone. Volatility around these ranges could create both shorting and bounce-trade opportunities, but with elevated risk.
– Swing traders and mid-term participants might watch for confirmation of a base or accumulation range below 0.03. Indicators like volume spikes on up-moves, decreasing sell-side CVD, and higher lows on the chart would strengthen the case for a trend reversal.
– Long-term, fundamentals-driven investors are likely to evaluate whether XDC’s institutional partnerships translate into recurring issuance, on-chain revenue, and brand recognition in the RWA sector. For them, pullbacks toward historical demand zones can be an opportunity if they are convinced by the long-term thesis.
Does a deeper pullback invalidate the long game?
A retest of the 0.022 support zone—while painful for recent buyers—does not necessarily invalidate XDC’s structural strategy. Price often lags fundamentals, especially on networks oriented toward institutions rather than retail. The critical question is not just where XDC is trading in the coming weeks, but whether the network continues to:
– Launch new RWA deals and onboard issuers,
– Deliver reliable, secure infrastructure upgrades, and
– Position itself as a credible bridge between traditional finance and blockchain.
If those boxes remain ticked, a prolonged consolidation or even another leg down could still be part of a broader accumulation phase rather than the end of the story.
Bottom line
XDC currently sits at an intersection of conflicting signals: weakening on-chain activity, cooling trading volume, and a bearish price trend on one side; growing institutional partnerships, an upgraded core infrastructure, and ambitious RWA issuance targets on the other.
In the near term, traders should be prepared for the possibility of a deeper pullback toward the long-standing 0.022 support zone, with a potential range forming below 0.03. Over the long haul, the fate of XDC will largely depend on whether its enterprise and RWA strategy translates into sustained, real-world adoption rather than remaining a promising narrative on paper.
Nothing in this analysis constitutes investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading and investing involve substantial risk, and every participant should carry out independent research and evaluate their own risk tolerance before entering the market.