Solana price outlook: Why patient swing traders are watching this key setup
Solana’s price performance has been underwhelming lately, despite the blockchain’s impressive on-chain and revenue metrics. After a strong first half of 2025, SOL lost its bullish momentum following the sharp “10/10” crash, which dragged the token below the psychological $200 mark and handed control to the bears.
Since then, the market has shifted into a defensive mode. Bulls have been trying to stabilize price action around major support zones, while sellers continue to cap any meaningful rallies. For now, the spotlight remains on two critical levels: the $120 support region and the $130 resistance band. What happens around these zones is likely to set the tone for Solana’s next big move.
Fundamental strength vs. price weakness
From a fundamental perspective, Solana remains one of the strongest players in the crypto ecosystem. In 2025, the Solana blockchain generated more revenue than any other chain, securing the top spot ahead of Hyperliquid and TRON.
– Solana’s total revenue: about $1.3 billion
– Hyperliquid’s revenue: roughly $816 million
– TRON’s revenue: around $608 million
This performance underscores that network usage and activity remained robust even while the token’s price entered a downtrend. High revenue often reflects healthy transaction volumes, active dApps, and sustained ecosystem engagement.
However, the disconnect between on-chain strength and market price has persisted. The 10/10 crash did more than trigger a one-off sell-off; it shifted market psychology from optimism to caution. Since that event, investors have been far more reluctant to chase rallies at higher levels.
Technical picture: A bearish structure with slowing downside
On the daily chart, SOL is still trading within a broadly bearish market structure. For this structure to flip decisively bullish, Solana would need to close a full daily session above the recent local swing high at approximately $127.87. That would signal that buyers have regained enough strength to break the sequence of lower highs.
At the moment, though, the data does not convincingly support such a scenario. Price continues to struggle below the $130 resistance area, suggesting that sellers remain active each time SOL attempts to climb.
Two key indicators reinforce this cautious view:
1. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
– Over the past two months, CMF has remained firmly below the -0.05 threshold.
– This points to persistent net capital outflows from the market, meaning more money has been leaving SOL than entering it.
– Such sustained negative readings typically align with prolonged selling pressure and weak demand.
2. Directional Movement Index (DMI)
– Recently, the DMI has not reflected a strong, clear trend.
– The absence of a dominant directional signal suggests the market is in a phase of indecision or consolidation rather than trending strongly up or down.
– A decisive move beyond $130 could change this and reintroduce trend strength, but that confirmation is not yet in place.
The good news for bulls is that the pace of the downtrend has clearly slowed in the last few weeks. The aggressive selloffs that characterized earlier periods have eased, and price volatility has compressed into a relatively narrow range. Nonetheless, slowing downside momentum is not the same as an active uptrend. For now, SOL is in a transitional phase, neither clearly bullish nor aggressively bearish.
Key price zones: $120 support and $130 resistance
The battle lines are drawn around two main areas:
– Support zone: $117–$120
This region has repeatedly attracted buyers, with the $120 level acting as a crucial buffer against deeper declines. When price dips toward this area, dip buyers and short-term traders often step in to defend it. Losing this zone on high volume would be a strong bearish signal and could open the door to a more pronounced correction.
– Resistance zone: $127.87–$130
This band marks both a recent swing high and a psychological barrier. Bulls need to break and hold above here to demonstrate genuine strength. Until that happens, upward moves are likely to be viewed as mere bear-market rallies or range-bound spikes rather than the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.
Between these levels, Solana has essentially carved out a short-term trading range.
Short-term range: A playground for intraday and short-horizon traders
Over the past month, SOL has been oscillating inside a relatively tight band approximately between $117 and $128. This consolidation range has several implications:
– It signals a pause in the downtrend, with sellers unable to force fresh lows and buyers unable to engineer a convincing breakout.
– It creates opportunities for lower timeframe traders—such as day traders and short-term swing traders—who thrive on well-defined ranges.
– Buying near the lower boundary ($117–$120) and selling closer to the upper boundary ($125–$128) becomes a valid strategy as long as the range holds.
– Conversely, aggressive traders might short near resistance with tight stops, targeting the mid-range or the lower boundary.
However, range trading comes with elevated risk. Ranges often end with sharp breakouts or breakdowns, catching complacent traders off guard. Anyone trading within this band should be ready to react quickly if price suddenly escapes the range.
Why swing traders should wait: The breakout or breakdown play
From a swing trader’s perspective—where the goal is to capture larger, multi-day or multi-week moves—the current environment favors patience over prediction.
Swing traders typically look for:
– Clear market structure shifts
– Strong breakouts above resistance or breakdowns below support
– Confirmed reversals accompanied by volume and momentum
In Solana’s case, the most logical swing-trading approach is to wait for price to escape the $117–$128 range and then position for the next impulse move.
Bullish opportunity for swing traders might emerge if:
– SOL closes decisively above $127.87–$130 on the daily timeframe.
– That breakout is supported by increased trading volume and an improvement in money flow (for example, CMF moving back toward neutral or positive territory).
– Price retests the former resistance area as support and holds, indicating that buyers are defending the breakout.
In this scenario, swing traders could look for long setups with the expectation that the trend may shift from consolidation or mild downtrend into a new upward leg. Upside targets would depend on broader market conditions but could include prior resistance levels or Fibonacci retracements from the previous drop.
Bearish opportunity for swing traders could appear if:
– SOL loses the $117–$120 support band with a strong daily close below it.
– CMF remains deeply negative or worsens, signaling continued capital flight.
– Any attempts to reclaim the former support fail, confirming it as new resistance.
Should this breakdown take shape, the path of least resistance could tilt further downward, offering swing traders an opportunity to position short or hedge existing long exposure.
The role of sentiment and leverage
The ongoing battle around $120 is not purely technical—it also reflects a leverage-driven tug-of-war between optimistic bulls and defensive bears.
– When price hovers near a major support, leveraged long positions tend to accumulate as traders bet on a bounce.
– At the same time, bears may open leveraged shorts near resistance, expecting another leg down.
This standoff amplifies volatility whenever liquidations are triggered on either side. A cascade of forced liquidations can quickly accelerate a move beyond support or resistance, turning a quiet range into a powerful trend day. Swing traders should be aware that when these key levels finally give way, the follow-through can be rapid and large.
On-chain strength as a longer-term tailwind
Despite the short- to medium-term technical weakness, Solana’s strong fundamentals should not be ignored, especially by investors with a longer horizon.
– Leading revenue generation suggests that demand for block space and network services remains strong.
– High and consistent on-chain activity often forms the backbone of sustainable price trends once market sentiment turns.
– The ecosystem’s continued growth—through applications, DeFi protocols, NFTs, and other use cases—can underpin recovery when macro and crypto-wide conditions become more favorable.
That said, markets can remain disconnected from fundamentals for extended periods. Technical structure and liquidity dynamics usually dictate entry and exit timing far more than long-term narratives.
Risk management for traders considering SOL
Anyone looking to trade Solana in this environment should prioritize risk control:
– Define clear invalidation levels.
For example, if going long on a breakout above $130, a common invalidation could be a return back into the prior range with strong selling pressure.
– Size positions conservatively.
Volatility in crypto can spike quickly, turning small misjudgments into large losses without proper sizing.
– Avoid overreacting to single candles.
A one-day spike above resistance or below support that is immediately reversed may be a false breakout, not a confirmed trend change.
– Watch market-wide conditions.
Bitcoin’s direction, liquidity conditions, and macro sentiment often influence SOL’s behavior, especially during inflection points.
What traders should focus on next
Over the coming days and weeks, the most important signals to monitor for Solana will be:
1. Daily close relative to $127.87–$130 and $117–$120.
– A sustained close above or below these zones will likely define the next meaningful swing.
2. Behavior of CMF and overall volume.
– Improvement in money flow could indicate that capital is returning to SOL, supporting a bullish reversal case.
– Continued negative CMF readings would favor patience or defensive positioning.
3. Trend confirmation via DMI or similar indicators.
– A renewed, clear trend signal following a breakout or breakdown would strengthen the confidence in a directional trade.
Until those confirmations arrive, Solana remains a range-bound asset with strong fundamentals but unclear short-term direction.
Bottom line
Solana’s brutal post-10/10 sell-off has cooled, but evidence of a true uptrend is still missing. The token is trapped in a short-term $117–$128 band, with $120 serving as a pivotal support area and the $127.87–$130 zone acting as a stiff ceiling.
For swing traders, this is a textbook situation where waiting for clarity could be more profitable than trying to guess the next move. A clean break above resistance or a decisive drop below support is likely to offer a much better risk-reward profile than trading inside the current range.
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Disclaimer: The analysis above reflects the writer’s opinion and is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, trading, or any other form of professional advice. Cryptocurrency trading and investing involve significant risk, and every reader should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making any financial decisions.