Is Bitcoin Nearing Its Peak? Analysts Say the Bull Run Might Not Be Over Yet — Here’s Why
Despite a surge in bearish bets and rising pessimism in the derivatives market, several signs suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) may still have room to grow before reaching its cycle top. According to analysts and on-chain data, the current market structure reflects a re-accumulation phase, not a distribution one — implying further bullish potential.
Over the past week, the open interest (OI) on Binance futures contracts spiked by over 30%, one of the sharpest increases in recent months. Pair this with deeply negative funding rates, and it becomes clear: traders are heavily shorting Bitcoin, expecting a correction. In most cases, such aggressive short positioning leads to a short squeeze, a scenario where bearish traders are forced to buy back their positions as prices unexpectedly rise, often resulting in rapid upward momentum.
Paradoxically, while traders bet on a downturn, on-chain activity suggests growing demand and decreasing availability. Since January 2024, the amount of BTC held on exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) desks has plummeted from 4.5 million coins to just 3.1 million. This decline indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) and retail investors alike are moving their assets into cold storage, reducing the liquid supply and increasing scarcity.
What’s more, miners have significantly slowed down their selling, despite BTC recently testing new highs. In contrast to previous bull cycles, where profit-taking led to rapid distribution, current trends show a lack of eagerness to exit positions. This behavior reinforces the theory that the market is in a re-accumulation phase, not the final stretch of a bull run.
Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, believes Bitcoin’s price action continues to align with its historical cycle patterns. He suggests that if this re-accumulation phase remains intact, BTC could reach a cycle top between $143,000 and $146,000. His projections are based on the diminishing returns model seen in previous cycles, where each bull run posts a smaller percentage gain than the last but still reaches a significantly higher price point.
However, there remains the possibility that recent highs — particularly near the $126,000 level — could represent a distribution phase. If this turns out to be the case, the top might already be in. Still, Wedson emphasizes that the current data does not support that scenario, stating, “The data isn’t acting like we’ve topped…”
The ongoing tug-of-war between bearish sentiment in the derivatives market and bullish fundamentals on-chain creates a complex picture. But historically, such setups have often preceded major upward movements, especially when short interest becomes overly crowded.
Adding to the bullish case, Bitcoin’s supply dynamics continue to tighten. With fewer coins available for trading and strong hands accumulating, the potential for a supply shock grows. Should a short squeeze occur in this environment, it could trigger a rapid move toward the projected top of the cycle.
Furthermore, macroeconomic factors may also fuel Bitcoin’s rise. As inflation continues to impact fiat currencies and institutional interest in digital assets grows, BTC remains an attractive hedge and store of value. Increased institutional inflows through spot ETFs and custodial platforms could provide the buying power needed to push prices higher.
Another key element supporting the bullish argument is the behavior of long-term holders. Data shows that these investors are not only refusing to sell but are also increasing their positions — a clear sign of confidence in future price appreciation. Historically, such accumulation phases precede significant upward moves.
Additionally, Glassnode and CryptoQuant data indicate that the cost basis of the average long-term holder is significantly below current prices. This means many of these investors are sitting on substantial unrealized gains but are still choosing to hold, further validating the belief that the market hasn’t yet reached euphoria — a typical sign of a market top.
Technical indicators also provide a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. While momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are approaching overbought territory, they are not yet signaling unsustainable levels. Moreover, moving average convergence suggests that BTC could continue its upward trajectory in the near term.
From a psychological standpoint, retail sentiment remains surprisingly subdued, another sign that the market may not be overheated. In past bull markets, tops were often accompanied by extreme retail FOMO (fear of missing out), which has not yet fully materialized in the current rally.
In conclusion, although bearish positions are piling up and some technical indicators are flashing caution, the broader on-chain and macroeconomic landscape suggests Bitcoin may still have room to run. If supply continues to tighten and demand persists, the possibility of reaching the $143K–$146K range remains firmly on the table.
As always, market conditions can shift rapidly, and while the data currently leans bullish, investors should remain vigilant and informed.