Has Bitcoin’s Bull Market Peaked? Three Key Bearish Signals Stir Debate Among Analysts
As Bitcoin continues to trade well below its recent all-time high, bearish analysts are sounding alarms that the current bull market may have reached its climax. With technical indicators flashing red and historical cycles aligning with a potential top, some market watchers argue that the rally might be over—or at least nearing exhaustion.
Bitcoin’s price has dipped roughly 13% from its all-time high of $126,000, reached on October 6, and continues to show signs of weakness. On Thursday alone, BTC dropped another 3%, prompting concerns that the current correction may be more than just a short-term pullback. Among the most cited reasons for this cautious outlook are a bearish MACD crossover, declining network activity, and the timing of the current cycle relative to previous halvings.
1. Bearish MACD Crossover Hints at Cycle Top
One of the most concerning signals for technical analysts is the confirmed bearish crossover on Bitcoin’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, particularly on the three-week chart. The MACD, a widely used tool to assess trend direction and momentum, has now seen its blue wave cross below the orange signal line.
This pattern has historically coincided with the end of previous bull markets in 2017 and 2021. Analyst Jesse Olson highlighted this development, pointing out that similar MACD signals in past cycles marked the precise moment when Bitcoin peaked before entering a prolonged downtrend. The latest crossover has reignited fears that 2024 may be following the same script.
2. Bearish Engulfing Candle Adds to Technical Concerns
Adding to the bearish case is the formation of a bearish engulfing candle on the same three-week chart. This pattern, where a red candle completely engulfs the previous green candle, is often interpreted as a reversal signal in technical analysis.
This formation also occurred near the peaks of Bitcoin’s major bull runs in 2017 and 2021. Olson emphasizes that the combination of the MACD crossover and the bearish engulfing candle strengthens the argument that Bitcoin may have already topped out for this cycle.
3. Network Activity Is Dwindling
On-chain metrics provide further evidence of weakening momentum. Data from blockchain analytics platform Nansen shows that the number of daily active Bitcoin addresses dropped by 30% in October—falling from around 632,000 to just over 447,000. This sharp decline in network engagement suggests decreasing demand and user participation.
Historically, a drop in active addresses has preceded major corrections or periods of sideways consolidation. It may indicate that retail interest is waning and that speculative enthusiasm is cooling off, both of which can weigh heavily on price action.
Timing: 558 Days After Halving Matches Historical Peaks
Another compelling argument from bearish analysts is rooted in Bitcoin’s historical halving cycle. Pseudonymous trader Mister Crypto points out that Bitcoin tends to peak between 518 and 580 days after each halving event. The current cycle stands at 558 days post-halving, placing it squarely within the historical window for a market top.
This timing aligns closely with the peaks seen in both the 2013 and 2017 cycles, lending weight to the idea that Bitcoin may be repeating its established behavior.
But Not Everyone Agrees: Bullish Analysts See Room for Growth
Despite the mounting bearish signals, several prominent analysts argue that the bull market still has legs. Analyst Jelle notes that Bitcoin has formed a “higher low” on the daily chart, a sign that the broader uptrend remains intact. Meanwhile, Mags points to a bullish megaphone pattern—an expanding price formation that has previously led to significant upside breakouts.
“The price is consolidating within a bullish megaphone. A breakout is imminent,” Mags stated, suggesting that a move towards the $180,000 target is still within reach.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Still Relevant?
The debate also touches on a larger philosophical question: Is Bitcoin still governed by its four-year halving cycle, or has the maturing market outgrown this pattern?
Some, like former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, argue that macroeconomic factors such as central bank monetary policies and institutional liquidity flows now play a larger role than halvings in determining Bitcoin’s price direction. If this is true, then historical patterns may not offer the predictive power they once did.
Others argue that while the halving may have a diminishing effect, it still exerts significant influence over supply dynamics, especially when coupled with growing demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries.
ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand Could Prolong the Rally
A counter-narrative gaining traction is that institutional adoption via Bitcoin ETFs and increased treasury allocations could extend the bull market beyond its traditional cycle. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in multiple regions has already brought fresh capital into the market and may continue to act as a tailwind.
As Bitcoin becomes more integrated into mainstream financial products and portfolios, its price behavior may gradually shift away from retail-driven speculation and towards more sustained, long-term growth patterns.
The Mayer Multiple Adds a Bullish Perspective
Technical indicators like the Mayer Multiple—used to assess whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold based on its historical price relative to the 200-day moving average—suggest that BTC may still be closer to undervalued territory. This metric has historically identified favorable entry points, and its current reading implies that further upside is possible.
Volatility Likely to Persist Amid Mixed Signals
What’s clear is that the market remains deeply divided. While some indicators signal caution, others suggest that Bitcoin’s bull run isn’t over yet. This divergence in outlook is likely to fuel continued volatility, as traders and investors weigh macroeconomic developments, regulatory shifts, and technical patterns.
What Should Investors Watch Next?
For those tracking the market closely, the following factors could help determine whether Bitcoin has indeed topped:
– Confirmation of the bearish MACD crossover on shorter time frames
– Continued decline or recovery in daily active addresses
– Whether Bitcoin breaks above or below key support/resistance levels like $112,000 and $126,000
– ETF inflow trends and institutional investment updates
– Macro developments, especially related to interest rates, inflation, and central bank policy
Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin
Bitcoin appears to be at a critical juncture. The convergence of technical weakness, historical timing, and declining on-chain activity suggests the possibility of a cycle top. However, countervailing forces—such as bullish chart patterns, institutional capital, and macro tailwinds—could still propel the price higher.
Whether the bull market is truly over remains an open question. In a space where sentiment shifts rapidly and innovation never sleeps, both caution and optimism may be warranted in equal measure.