Brazil’s biggest private bank is quietly reshaping how it thinks about Bitcoin — and wants its clients to follow.
Itaú Asset Management, the investment arm of Itaú Unibanco, is advising investors to allocate between 1% and 3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin in 2026. According to the firm, a small exposure to BTC can enhance diversification and provide a meaningful hedge against currency volatility, even after a roller-coaster year for the asset.
Renato Eid, a strategist at Itaú Asset, outlined the recommendation in a recent research note. He argues that the current global environment — marked by geopolitical frictions, shifting interest-rate regimes and persistent currency risks — makes a stronger case for including Bitcoin as a complementary asset class rather than ignoring it.
Eid describes Bitcoin as “fundamentally different” from bonds, traditional equities and purely domestic investments. In his view, BTC behaves according to its own set of drivers, offers distinctive return potential and, thanks to its global and decentralized structure, can act as a tool for currency protection. That separation from conventional markets is exactly what Itaú wants clients to tap into.
The timing of this guidance is notable. Bitcoin has had a highly volatile year: it started 2025 trading near 95,000 dollars, dropped toward 80,000 during a tariff-driven market scare, then ripped to a new all-time high around 125,000 before sliding back and stabilizing roughly where it began the year. For many conservative investors, such swings would traditionally be a reason to stay away.
In Brazil, that volatility has been felt even more sharply. While BTC prices were whipsawing in global markets, the Brazilian real appreciated by about 15% over the same period. For local investors measuring returns in BRL, this currency move amplified apparent losses on Bitcoin positions when the dollar price fell, deepening the sense that the asset is “too risky.”
Itaú Asset’s analysis, however, takes a different angle. Instead of treating Bitcoin as a speculative bet, the bank frames it as a small but strategic building block within a broader portfolio. Internal data from Itaú show a low correlation between BITI11, the bank’s locally listed Bitcoin ETF, and major traditional asset classes. That weak relationship means a carefully calibrated allocation to BTC can reduce overall portfolio risk rather than increase it, assuming the position is kept modest.
In the research note, the bank concludes that setting aside roughly 1% to 3% of a portfolio for Bitcoin allows investors to “take advantage of an asset that genuinely contributes to diversification.” The idea is not to chase quick gains, but to add an exposure that behaves differently from Brazilian equities, local bonds or international stock indexes — thereby smoothing out the impact of shocks concentrated in any single market.
The recommendation ties into a broader strategic shift at Itaú. In September, the firm created a dedicated cryptocurrency division and placed João Marco Braga da Cunha, a former executive at digital-asset manager Hashdex, at its head. This specialized unit builds on Itaú’s earlier forays into the sector, including the launch of a Bitcoin ETF and a retirement fund with crypto exposure, and signals that the bank now sees digital assets as a permanent fixture of the financial landscape.
From here, Itaú plans to flesh out a full spectrum of crypto-related products. On the conservative end, that means instruments with return profiles closer to fixed income, designed for investors who want limited volatility while still accessing blockchain-based opportunities. At the other extreme, the bank is exploring higher-risk strategies, including derivatives and staking-focused products, aimed at more sophisticated or risk-tolerant clients.
This 1%–3% guidance also reflects a broader evolution in how institutional players approach Bitcoin. Rather than promoting “all-in” speculative narratives, major banks are increasingly aligning BTC with established portfolio theory: small allocations to uncorrelated assets can improve the risk-adjusted return profile of a diversified basket. In this framework, Bitcoin is no longer an all-or-nothing gamble but a satellite position complementing a core portfolio of stocks, bonds and real assets.
For Brazilian investors, the currency-hedging angle is especially significant. The real has a long history of sharp moves in response to political developments, fiscal concerns and external shocks. Because Bitcoin trades around the clock in global markets and is typically priced in dollars, it can serve as a partial buffer when local currency dynamics turn unfavorable. While BTC is volatile in its own right, its drivers are not the same as those affecting the real, which is precisely why Itaú sees a modest allocation as useful.
That doesn’t mean the bank is downplaying the risks. Bitcoin remains highly speculative, subject to large drawdowns and sudden repricing around regulatory news, macro shifts or market sentiment. From a risk-management perspective, Itaú’s 1%–3% band is intentional: it is small enough that a major crypto downturn would not jeopardize an investor’s long-term financial plan, yet large enough that a sustained bull market or structural adoption of BTC could have a noticeable positive impact on overall returns.
For individual investors, the recommendation can be translated into clear, practical steps. A conservative profile might start closer to 1%, perhaps via a regulated ETF like BITI11 instead of direct coin custody. A balanced or moderately aggressive investor might consider inching up toward 2%–3%, ideally as part of a periodically rebalanced portfolio where BTC exposure is trimmed after big rallies and topped up after major declines, keeping the weight within the target range.
Another critical point in Itaú’s approach is the emphasis on education and infrastructure. By creating a dedicated crypto unit, the bank is signaling that it intends not only to distribute products, but also to build internal expertise in areas such as custody, compliance, taxation and risk monitoring. This infrastructure is essential for turning a theoretical 3% recommendation into something that mainstream investors can execute safely and transparently through existing banking relationships.
The move also reflects the maturing regulatory and market environment in Brazil. As tax rules, reporting obligations and licensing frameworks around digital assets become clearer, large institutions are more comfortable offering crypto exposure in formats that align with local laws and investor-protection standards. That, in turn, lowers barriers for individuals and pension funds that previously stayed on the sidelines due to operational or regulatory uncertainty.
Looking ahead to 2026, Itaú’s position suggests it expects Bitcoin to remain a relevant asset regardless of short-term price swings. The bank is effectively arguing that BTC has crossed a threshold: it may be volatile, but it is no longer ignorable. In a world of unpredictable interest rates, tense geopolitics and frequent currency disruptions, having a small stake in a globally traded, decentralized asset is, in its view, a rational way to diversify away from purely domestic and traditional exposures.
Investors considering whether to follow Itaú’s guidance should still weigh their own circumstances: investment horizon, income stability, emergency savings, tolerance for volatility and familiarity with digital assets. A 3% allocation for a young, long-term investor with a high risk appetite will feel very different than the same 3% for a retiree living off fixed income. The bank’s 1%–3% corridor is a framework, not a rule.
Nonetheless, the signal from Brazil’s largest private bank is clear: Bitcoin is moving from the fringes into structured, institutionally designed portfolios. Rather than asking whether to bet everything on crypto or avoid it entirely, Itaú is nudging clients toward a middle path — one where BTC plays a small but deliberate role in managing currency risk and enhancing diversification in the years ahead.