Bitcoin Whale Triggers $200M Sell-Off: Is a Drop to $96K Imminent?
A prominent early Bitcoin investor, Owen Gunden, has recently liquidated a substantial portion of his holdings, intensifying market concerns. In just one week, Gunden sold approximately 1,800 BTC—worth around $200 million—via the Kraken exchange. This move is part of a broader trend among long-term holders (LTHs), many of whom have begun exiting their positions after five or more months of accumulation.
Since October, Gunden has significantly reduced his Bitcoin portfolio, trimming it from over 11,000 BTC (valued at roughly $1.4 billion) to around 5,350 BTC (now worth about $560 million). Though Gunden’s holdings are nearly halved, the broader impact lies in the behavior of other veteran whales who may follow suit, potentially adding further downward pressure on the market.
Throughout November alone, LTHs have sold an estimated 414,000 BTC—equivalent to more than $43 billion. This surge in selling activity began gaining momentum in July, with October marking a sharp acceleration. The result has been a persistent drag on Bitcoin’s price, which has declined from a peak of $126,000 earlier in the year to just above $100,000 in recent weeks.
Despite this, some market participants argue that if Bitcoin managed to reach $126K in October during a similar wave of whale offloading, a recovery remains plausible. The key difference now lies in weakening institutional demand. At the start of the second half of 2025, inflows from ETFs and corporate treasuries had been robust enough to counterbalance the sell pressure, helping stabilize the market. However, recent data shows a reversal in that trend.
ETF outflows have become a major concern, with November recording a net withdrawal of 31,000 BTC. This outflow reflects broader investor unease, reminiscent of the sentiment during the 2025 tariff conflicts that rattled global markets earlier in the year. As institutional appetite wanes, the market struggles to absorb the heavy sell-offs from long-term holders and whales.
In parallel, the options market has begun flashing warning signals. A growing number of traders are seeking downside protection, as evidenced by increased put volumes—bearish contracts that profit from declining prices. Many of these puts are targeting levels as low as $85,000 by year-end. For contracts expiring at the end of November, $96,000 has emerged as a key support zone, with significant hedging activity concentrated around that level.
Interestingly, bullish sentiment seems to be fading, with limited call buying near the $108,000 mark over the past 24 hours. This suggests that market participants are bracing for further declines rather than anticipating a swift rebound above $100K.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $105,000. Market participants remain cautious, and any sustained recovery will likely require a resurgence in ETF inflows or a halt in whale-driven sell-offs.
Is a Recovery Still on the Table?
Despite the gloom, there are still reasons for cautious optimism. Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain intact, with network activity and hash rate continuing to show strength. Additionally, institutional players who exited during recent volatility could re-enter once macroeconomic uncertainties stabilize.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience in similar conditions. Significant drawdowns prompted by whale liquidations have often been followed by periods of consolidation and eventual recovery. However, timing remains uncertain, and recovery hinges on several key factors aligning—most notably, the return of positive ETF flows and improved investor sentiment.
How Will Macroeconomic Conditions Influence BTC?
Another critical element influencing Bitcoin’s next move is the broader macroeconomic environment. If central banks adopt more accommodative monetary policies in response to slowing growth or inflation, risk-on assets like Bitcoin could benefit. Conversely, continued geopolitical tensions or rate hikes could deter capital from flowing into crypto markets, prolonging the current bearish trend.
What Role Are Retail Investors Playing?
While institutional interest dominates headlines, retail investors still play a significant role in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Recent on-chain data indicates that smaller wallets—often associated with retail investors—have been accumulating during the dip. This behavior suggests that while whales are exiting, retail holders may be anticipating a long-term opportunity.
Whale Behavior: A Double-Edged Sword
Whale activity is often viewed with suspicion in crypto markets, given the outsized influence these players can have. However, their presence also signals long-term confidence in the asset. The recent sell-off may simply represent portfolio rebalancing or profit-taking after years of holding. If these same whales re-enter the market at lower levels, they could provide the momentum necessary for a future rally.
What to Watch Going Forward
Investors should closely monitor ETF inflow and outflow data, on-chain metrics like wallet distribution and exchange balances, and macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and interest rates. Additionally, regulatory developments in major markets could either ease or intensify current headwinds.
Bottom Line
The $200 million Bitcoin sale by Owen Gunden is just one piece of a larger puzzle involving long-term holder behavior, institutional flows, and macroeconomic conditions. While the current outlook appears cautious, the market has repeatedly proven its ability to recover from similar downturns. Whether or not Bitcoin revisits $96K—or rebounds from current levels—will depend on how quickly confidence returns to the ecosystem. For now, traders and investors alike are bracing for continued volatility as the market seeks direction.