Bitcoin Targets $110K Following Double Bottom, but CME Gap and Liquidity Trends Could Delay Breakout
Bitcoin is flashing strong bullish signals after forming a textbook double bottom pattern, a classic technical setup that often precedes upward price momentum. Over the past weekend, BTC rebounded from the $100,000 range, closing the week above its 50-week moving average — a significant indicator of long-term trend strength. This movement has reignited bullish speculation, with analysts now eyeing a potential move toward the $110,000 mark.
The double bottom pattern developed alongside a key support zone between $98,100 and $102,000, an area where Bitcoin has repeatedly found buying interest. The breakout above this consolidation range on the four-hour chart has triggered a short-term bullish structure, setting the stage for another test of resistance near $111,300. However, the path upward may not be smooth.
On-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s rally may soon encounter headwinds. According to Glassnode, BTC recently bounced from the 75th percentile cost basis — around $100,000 — where a large concentration of holders acquired their coins. The next critical level lies near the 85th percentile cost basis, close to $108,500, which has historically served as resistance during price recoveries. These percentile metrics help map investor positioning, offering insight into potential supply zones.
Adding complexity to the outlook is an unfilled CME gap between $103,100 and $104,000. These gaps occur when Bitcoin trades over the weekend while traditional futures markets are closed — creating a price discrepancy between Friday’s close and Monday’s open on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Historically, such gaps are “filled” as price retraces to those levels, suggesting BTC may dip in the short term before continuing its ascent.
Meanwhile, long-side liquidity around $100,000 appears depleted, while a potential liquidity cluster above $115,000 could attract price in the medium term. However, with thinning market participation and liquidity, Bitcoin might first revisit the $101,000–$102,500 range. This zone aligns with recent one-hour and four-hour order blocks — areas of high trading activity — and could serve as a springboard for the next leg up.
Another key factor shaping the short-term outlook is the behavior of stablecoins. Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped sharply from over 18 earlier in the year to just 13.1 — one of the lowest levels recorded in 2025. This indicates an increase in stablecoin reserves relative to Bitcoin’s market capitalization, suggesting that sidelined capital is waiting for a clearer market direction before re-entering.
Although stablecoin accumulation typically precedes bullish breakouts, it also reflects investor caution. Over the past month, as BTC hovered near $105,000, the SSR fell from 15 to 13, underscoring a patient market posture. Capital is ready to deploy, but participants are holding back until confirmation of trend continuation.
At the same time, short-term holder (STH) behavior could introduce volatility. Crypto analyst Darkfost noted a significant increase in STH inflows to Binance, rising from 5,000 BTC to 8,700 BTC since September — a 40% surge. These investors, who typically enter and exit positions more frequently, are now sitting on losses, with their average realized price around $112,000. This underwater positioning makes them more prone to panic selling, especially during minor pullbacks, potentially triggering shakeouts before broader uptrends resume.
Beyond technical and on-chain signals, macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments may also influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. With global markets still navigating inflationary pressures and central bank policies, risk assets like Bitcoin remain sensitive to changes in interest rates and investor sentiment across traditional financial markets.
Additionally, the evolving landscape of institutional participation plays a critical role. While recent ETF outflows suggest some cooling in institutional appetite, large-scale buying from crypto “whales” has helped absorb sell pressure, stabilizing price action during corrections. This dynamic underscores the growing influence of deep-pocketed players in shaping market direction.
Looking ahead, traders and investors should monitor several key levels: support between $101,000 and $102,500, resistance near $108,500 and $111,300, and the CME gap zone around $104,000. A sustained move above $111,300 could open the door to a test of $115,000, while failure to hold above $100,000 might invite deeper retracements.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s technical setup and stablecoin reserves point toward a potential breakout to $110,000 and beyond, caution is warranted. Unfilled CME gaps, short-term holder behavior, and liquidity dynamics could introduce near-term turbulence. Traders should remain vigilant and adaptive, as the next decisive move may depend as much on market psychology as on charts and metrics.
To further understand market direction, keep an eye on:
– Volume trends across major exchanges, which can confirm or invalidate breakout attempts.
– Derivatives market data, including funding rates and open interest, to assess leverage exposure.
– Movement of stablecoins into exchanges, often a precursor to active buying.
– Whale wallet activity, which can provide clues about institutional or large-scale investor sentiment.
Bitcoin’s journey toward $110,000 remains in motion, but the road is lined with both opportunity and risk. Patience and informed analysis will be key to navigating the coming weeks.