Bitcoin Disappoints in ‘Uptober’: Is a November Comeback on the Horizon?
October 2025, often dubbed “Uptober” in the crypto community for its historically bullish performance, failed to deliver this year. Instead of the anticipated rally, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a steady decline, dipping from roughly $118,000 to nearly $110,000 by the end of the month. This underwhelming performance has left many questioning whether the market can regain its momentum in November—a month that, historically, has favored Bitcoin bulls.
Throughout October, a combination of waning retail enthusiasm, cooling network activity, and mounting macroeconomic pressures dragged BTC downward. Mid-month charts reflected red candles and surging trading volume—classic signs of profit-taking. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below neutral, and the asset consistently traded beneath key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a weakening bullish trend and possible exhaustion in the rally that began earlier in the year.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, macroeconomic catalysts turned less favorable. Optimism surrounding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December began to fade, eroding investor confidence. Simultaneously, U.S. equities outperformed digital assets, China maintained its strict stance on cryptocurrency regulations, and regulatory scrutiny over large tech firms—dubbed “DAT companies” in Washington—further complicated the investment landscape.
Despite this downturn, history offers a glimmer of hope. November has traditionally been a strong month for Bitcoin. Since 2013, median returns in November have averaged 8.81%, with the cryptocurrency posting double-digit gains in 2020, 2021, and 2023. This seasonal trend, coupled with emerging positive macro signals, could potentially reignite upward momentum.
Encouraging developments include easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which have helped reduce geopolitical risk—a supportive factor for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Moreover, data from the CME FedWatch Tool suggests there is now over a 60% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Should this materialize, it could inject fresh optimism into the market.
Another key development is the anticipated conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) policy, scheduled for early December. The end of QT could increase liquidity in the financial system, providing more capital for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the potential approval of new Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains on the horizon, and such institutional products have historically been seen as bullish catalysts.
Despite these promising signals, short-term data paints a more cautious picture. Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives climbed nearly 10% within a week—from $7.95 billion to $8.65 billion—as BTC hovered near the $110,000 level. However, this rise in OI was accompanied by a sharp drop in Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), suggesting that new short positions, rather than long ones, were driving the increase. This indicates that many traders are still betting on further downside.
On-chain data reinforces the cautious mood among retail investors. Active Bitcoin addresses have plummeted from 1.18 million in November 2024 to just 872,000 by October 30, 2025—a drop of over 26%. Simultaneously, average transaction fees have collapsed from $8.44 to merely $0.56, pointing to decreased demand for block space and lower network activity.
This retreat in retail participation tends to delay bull cycles. Less engagement translates to slower organic price growth, meaning any potential rally in November may require institutional support or strong macroeconomic tailwinds to gain traction.
Looking deeper into investor behavior, we can observe a growing divergence between retail and institutional sentiment. While retail traders are pulling back, likely due to recent volatility and regulatory uncertainty, institutional interest appears to be warming up. Large wallet addresses (commonly referred to as “whales”) have been quietly accumulating during the dip, a behavior that often precedes broader market turnarounds.
Moreover, the Bitcoin halving event—expected in 2026—is already part of long-term investor discussions. Historically, halvings have had a profound impact on supply-demand dynamics, often catalyzing prolonged bull runs. With just months to go before the next halving, some investors may begin positioning themselves early, potentially driving demand through Q4 and into the new year.
Another overlooked factor is the role of stablecoins and overall liquidity within the crypto ecosystem. Recent data shows a slight uptick in stablecoin inflows to exchanges, often considered a leading indicator of renewed buying activity. If this trend continues into November, it could signal an impending shift in investor appetite toward riskier assets like BTC.
Also noteworthy is the global regulatory environment. While the U.S. remains cautious, several jurisdictions, including Hong Kong and the European Union, have taken steps to clarify their crypto frameworks. These regulatory advancements could attract more institutional players, especially if ETF approvals move forward and banking channels for digital assets become more accessible.
Finally, investor sentiment may be influenced by the broader financial landscape. With inflation slowing in many developed economies and central banks gradually shifting to more accommodative stances, the macro backdrop may soon favor assets like Bitcoin that are viewed as hedges against fiat debasement.
In summary, while October 2025 defied bullish expectations, the stage for a potential November rebound is not entirely absent. Historical performance, emerging macro catalysts, and long-term structural factors such as the upcoming halving and ETF developments could all converge to support a market recovery. However, the subdued retail activity and cautious trading behavior suggest that any rally may unfold gradually, requiring a sustained shift in sentiment and a favorable macroeconomic environment to fully materialize.