Bitcoin investors are facing their first sustained wave of realized losses in months, just as traditional safe-haven assets like gold surge to new historic highs amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions.
According to on-chain analytics shared by Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s (BTC) rolling 30-day realized profit and loss has slipped into negative territory for the first time since late 2023. This metric tracks whether coins moved on-chain over the past month were sold at a profit or a loss relative to their acquisition cost.
Moreno noted that “Bitcoin holders [are] realizing losses, for a 30-day period since late December for the first time since October 2023.” In practice, that means a meaningful share of coins spent recently were bought at higher prices and are now being sold at a discount, locking in losses for those holders.
The net realized profit/loss indicator, defined by CryptoQuant as the total profit or loss realized by all coins spent within a given period, does not automatically signal a falling spot price. Instead, a negative reading usually implies that selling pressure is increasingly coming from investors who bought at or near recent highs, rather than long-term holders who accumulated at lower levels. This often reflects a shift in sentiment from euphoria or optimism toward caution and risk reduction.
While Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market experience renewed pressure, gold has been racing in the opposite direction. The precious metal recently broke through the $4,700 per ounce mark for the first time, as investors worldwide seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets amid intensifying geopolitical frictions and growing fears of a trade war.
On Tuesday, spot gold surged to an all-time high of $4,701.23 before paring some gains, while US gold futures also printed fresh records. Silver has been following gold’s lead, hovering near historic levels after briefly touching $94.72 per ounce. The move in precious metals underscores a broad shift toward capital preservation and away from higher-risk assets.
The latest gold rally has been fueled in part by escalating trade rhetoric and geopolitical uncertainty. Fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, who warned of new trade measures against European partners unless Denmark agreed to cede Greenland, reignited concerns over a renewed and potentially broader trade conflict. Even if such comments are viewed by some as political posturing, markets tend to react preemptively to any sign that global trade flows could be disrupted.
This divergence between Bitcoin and gold has sharply compressed the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. According to analysis from Bitfinex, the ratio has dropped more than 50% from its recent peak, reflecting how much more strongly gold has performed relative to BTC in the latest risk-off environment. Analysts noted that the last time the ratio dipped to similar levels, Bitcoin went on to significantly outperform gold in subsequent months, suggesting this cross-asset gauge may be important to watch as liquidity dynamics evolve heading into 2026.
Risk aversion is also clearly visible in institutional crypto products. US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of $394.7 million on Monday, ending a four-day streak of inflows that had previously attracted more than $1.8 billion. After a period in which spot Bitcoin ETFs appeared to be a major pillar of demand, this reversal signals that some professional and institutional investors are trimming exposure or taking profits in response to macro uncertainty.
Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of Valr, described the mood shift bluntly, noting that President Trump’s “aggressive trading rhetoric is pushing the market back into full de-risking mode.” He added that tariff threats, and the likelihood of retaliatory measures from affected countries, have historically created “significant headwinds for digital and other risk assets,” including cryptocurrencies and high-growth equities.
What realized losses actually tell us about the Bitcoin cycle
The emergence of 30-day realized losses after a long profit-dominated stretch is an important cyclical signal for Bitcoin analysts. Periods where realized profits are overwhelmingly positive often coincide with strong uptrends, new buyers entering the market, and growing speculative activity. When that metric flips negative, it can indicate one of two things: the early stages of a deeper correction, or a shakeout phase that clears out weak hands before the next leg higher.
In previous cycles, sustained realized losses have sometimes marked capitulation points, where short-term holders who bought near local tops exit at a loss, while long-term holders and deep-pocketed buyers quietly accumulate. On-chain data around holder cohorts, coin age, and realized price often helps distinguish whether the current environment is more likely a distribution phase or an accumulation phase beneath the surface.
The current backdrop is nuanced. While some newer market participants are selling at a loss, long-term holders still control a substantial portion of the supply, many of whom acquired coins at far lower prices. If their conviction remains intact and they are reluctant to sell, that can put a natural floor under the market, even as short-term realized losses rise.
Gold vs. Bitcoin: competing safe havens in a crisis
The latest moves highlight a recurring question in macro investing: in periods of heightened uncertainty, does capital flow to Bitcoin as “digital gold,” or does traditional gold remain the default safe haven?
This time, price action shows investors leaning heavily toward the metal. Gold’s record highs suggest that large capital allocators still view it as the most reliable hedge against geopolitical risk, currency debasement, and trade shocks. Bitcoin, though increasingly accepted as a macro asset, is still seen by many as higher beta — more akin to a risk-on inflation hedge than a pure defensive play.
That said, the sharp pullback in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio could be laying the groundwork for a later reversal. If tensions eventually cool, central banks maintain or increase liquidity, and risk appetite returns, capital may rotate back from ultra-defensive positions in gold into higher-yielding assets like equities and crypto. In that scenario, Bitcoin’s relative underperformance during the risk-off phase could set the stage for a period of outperformance, similar to previous cycles.
The role of ETFs and institutional flows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a crucial lens for understanding where institutional and professional sentiment stands at any given moment. The recent streak of inflows demonstrated strong demand when macro conditions were more benign. The sudden flip to sizable outflows, however, underlines how sensitive these products are to shifts in the macro narrative.
If outflows remain short-lived and quickly reverse, it would suggest that recent selling was more about tactical positioning — such as locking in profits or reducing risk ahead of key geopolitical or economic events — rather than a structural loss of confidence in Bitcoin. Prolonged or accelerating outflows, on the other hand, would point to deeper skepticism and could amplify selling pressure on the spot market.
Traders and long-term investors alike are watching ETF flow data alongside on-chain metrics. The combination of negative realized profit/loss, ETF outflows, and gold strength paints a clear picture of a market in risk-off mode, but it does not necessarily preclude a bullish longer-term outlook for BTC.
What this environment means for Bitcoin holders
For existing Bitcoin holders, the current phase calls for a clear distinction between time horizons. Short-term traders who closely follow macro headlines and volatility may choose to reduce exposure or employ hedging strategies until the geopolitical and trade picture becomes clearer. Long-term investors with multi-year investment theses often view periods of realized losses and risk aversion as parts of the normal market cycle.
The key question is whether the current realized losses reflect panic-driven exits or disciplined portfolio rebalancing. If a large share of selling is coming from short-term holders with limited conviction, that can eventually strengthen the market structure by consolidating coins into stronger hands. Historical data frequently shows that such consolidation periods, while uncomfortable, often precede more sustainable rallies.
At the same time, the global macro backdrop cannot be ignored. Trade conflicts, tariff regimes, and geopolitical tension can weigh on overall liquidity, dampen economic growth, and compress risk premia across asset classes. Bitcoin, despite its unique properties and limited supply, is not completely insulated from those forces.
How investors can navigate the Bitcoin–gold split
In a climate where gold is making new highs and Bitcoin is seeing realized losses, many diversified investors are reassessing how they balance exposure between hard assets. Some opt for a barbell strategy: holding a portion of their portfolio in ultra-defensive assets like gold and cash, while maintaining a smaller but high-conviction allocation to asymmetric opportunities like Bitcoin.
Others focus on relative value, watching ratios such as BTC/gold to decide when one asset looks historically cheap compared with the other. The current compression in that ratio may be interpreted by some as an opportunity to gradually accumulate BTC while sentiment is negative and realized losses dominate headlines.
For risk-conscious participants, the most important step is clarity: understanding their risk tolerance, time frame, and thesis for holding each asset. Short-term noise — including sharp swings in realized profit/loss — can be less destabilizing when it’s framed within a broader strategy.
Looking ahead
As 2026 approaches and global liquidity conditions evolve, cross-asset relationships between Bitcoin, gold, equities, and bonds will likely become even more important for both institutional and retail investors. The present moment, marked by Bitcoin’s first 30-day stretch of net realized losses since late 2023 and gold’s surge to unprecedented levels, is a snapshot of a market recalibrating to a more uncertain world.
Whether this phase ultimately marks a deeper correction for Bitcoin or a consolidation before renewed strength will depend on how geopolitical risks unfold, how policymakers respond, and how investors reassess the balance between risk and safety. For now, the data clearly shows a market shifting toward defense — and positioning for whichever asset can best navigate the next chapter of global volatility.