Bitcoin’s brush with the $100,000 mark has stirred debate among analysts, with opinions split on whether the recent dip signals a deeper correction or marks the end of a downward phase. While Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone views the milestone as a mere “speed bump” on the way down to $56,000, other market indicators suggest a potential local bottom has already formed.
McGlone argues that Bitcoin’s historical performance supports the possibility of a pullback to its 48-month moving average, which currently sits around $56,000. According to him, such reversion is typical following extended bull runs, like those seen in previous cycles, particularly noting patterns that emerged in 2025. His perspective aligns with traditional financial analysis, where mean reversion plays a significant role in asset valuation.
However, not all experts share McGlone’s cautionary stance. On-chain data from analytics firm Glassnode paints a more optimistic picture. Their recent report highlights that Bitcoin’s current trajectory may be indicative of a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a new bear market. One key metric, the Relative Unrealized Loss—which measures the proportion of unrealized losses against total market capitalization—currently stands at just 3.1%. This figure is relatively low and similar to corrections observed in late 2024 and early 2025, none of which exceeded a 5% threshold.
Further supporting the case for a local bottom, analysts from XWIN Research Japan point to Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This metric, which helps determine whether the asset is over- or undervalued, has dropped to levels historically associated with the end of downward movements. This suggests that the recent decline, which saw BTC dip below $100,000 for the first time in over four months, might have exhausted its bearish momentum.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin has recovered slightly, trading above $101,000. This stabilization has helped calm investor nerves, with no significant signs of panic selling or mass liquidations observed on the networks or exchanges.
Still, not everyone is convinced that the worst is over. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, recently warned of a possible retracement of up to 70% over the next two years, reflecting a more bearish long-term outlook. This sentiment was echoed by ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, who revised her ambitious Bitcoin price target downward. Originally forecasting a peak of $1.5 million by 2030, Wood has now trimmed that estimate by $300,000, citing the growing influence of stablecoins and their potential to undermine Bitcoin’s role as a store of value in developing economies.
Despite these cautionary views, several fundamental factors continue to support Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Institutional interest remains strong, with major asset managers and corporations exploring crypto-based investment vehicles. Additionally, macroeconomic conditions, including concerns over fiat currency devaluation and inflation, continue to drive interest in decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin.
Moreover, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, projected for 2028, could serve as another catalyst for price appreciation. Historically, halvings have significantly reduced supply inflation, often preceding major bull runs. If past patterns hold true, the next halving could set the stage for renewed upward momentum.
From a technical standpoint, traders are closely watching key support and resistance levels. A sustained move above $105,000 could invalidate short-term bearish scenarios and usher in a new phase of bullish activity. Conversely, a drop below $95,000 may reintroduce downward pressure and reignite fears of a deeper correction.
Investor sentiment, while cautious, has shown resilience. Metrics such as exchange outflows, long-term holder accumulation, and reduced selling pressure suggest that many market participants are viewing the current price range as an opportunity to accumulate rather than liquidate.
In conclusion, while some analysts foresee a steep correction potentially dragging Bitcoin down to $56,000, current on-chain data and market behavior indicate that the crypto asset may have already found its local floor. Whether this marks the beginning of a new bullish phase or simply a pause in a broader retracement remains to be seen. However, with macro and technical factors aligning for a potential rebound, the coming weeks will be critical in determining Bitcoin’s next major move.