Key Bitcoin price zones before Powell: can BTC defend $90K or attack $100K?
Bitcoin is entering the final Federal Reserve meeting of 2025 in a state of heightened tension, with traders laser‑focused on a handful of critical price levels that could define the next major move. The market has already struggled several times to overcome the $94,000 resistance area, and the outcome of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech could determine whether BTC slides back toward $84,000 or finally builds momentum toward six‑figure territory.
Rate‑cut expectations: bullish, but likely priced in
The last two‑day meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee for the year kicked off on Tuesday, with the interest‑rate decision scheduled for Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET.
Derivatives and prediction markets currently suggest an overwhelmingly high probability of another 25‑basis‑point (0.25%) cut, the third such reduction this year. One major prediction platform is pricing the odds of a 25 bps cut at about 96%, assigning only a small chance to rates remaining unchanged, and pointing to a target range of roughly 3.50%–3.75%.
However, while lower rates are typically seen as positive for risk assets such as Bitcoin, much of this optimism appears to have been absorbed into prices already. Traders increasingly suspect that any immediate “relief rally” on confirmation of the cut could be limited unless Powell delivers a meaningfully more dovish outlook than expected.
Market nerves ahead of Powell’s speech
On Wednesday, Bitcoin pulled back toward the $92,000 area, reflecting growing concerns that Powell might strike a cautious or even slightly hawkish tone when discussing the outlook for inflation, wage growth, and future cuts.
One market analyst noted that weak labor‑market data earlier in the week slightly dented expectations for aggressive easing and unsettled traditional financial markets. As a result, attention has shifted from the decision itself to Powell’s wording at the press conference, where a single phrase about being “data‑dependent” or “premature to discuss further cuts” could sour risk sentiment.
Another commentator stressed that while the market is all but certain of a 25 bps cut, “the real drama will come from Jerome Powell’s speech,” underscoring that forward guidance—rather than the mechanical rate move—is likely to drive BTC’s next leg.
Key resistance: $94K, $98K, $100K, and beyond
Technically, Bitcoin continues to face a heavy ceiling at around $94,000, which aligns with this year’s opening level and has repeatedly capped upside attempts. Tuesday’s failed breakout attempt once again confirmed this zone as a major line in the sand between bulls and bears.
For buyers, a crucial objective is to reclaim and hold above the yearly level near $93,300–$94,000, transforming it from resistance into a solid support base. Only then can BTC seriously aim for fresh highs and a push beyond $100,000.
Several additional resistance zones form a ladder above current prices:
– 50‑day simple moving average (SMA) near $98,000
BTC/USD needs to retake this moving average convincingly to signal renewed bullish momentum. A sustained move above the 50‑day SMA would suggest that the recent pullbacks are part of a healthy consolidation rather than the start of a deeper downtrend.
– Psychological barrier at $100,000
The six‑figure level is more than just a round number; it’s a key psychological milestone for both retail and institutional participants. Previous attempts around this area saw sharp rejections, similar to the sell‑off observed in February. Multiple failures to break $100,000 could again trigger profit‑taking and short‑term panic, reinforcing it as a formidable resistance band.
– Major supply zone up to $108,000
Above $100K, a broad supply area stretches up to roughly $108,000. This region coincides with the 200‑day SMA, which BTC lost on November 3 for the first time since late April. Historically, the 200‑day moving average has acted as a key long‑term trend indicator. Bulls must not only reclaim but also defend this line to credibly argue for a sustainable move toward $110,000 and higher.
Critical support: $94K failure risks deeper pullback
On the downside, bears are intent on defending the $94,000 region and turning it into a sturdy resistance barrier. If they succeed, the probability increases that Bitcoin will revisit or set new lows below the $90,000 handle.
Key zones to watch include:
– $90,000 to $87,500 band
This range encompasses the latest local lows around $87,500, recorded on Sunday. It represents a short‑term demand pocket where buyers previously emerged to halt the decline. A clean break below $90K—especially on strong volume—would raise the risk of accelerated selling.
– November 21 low near $84,000
If the $90K–$87.5K floor gives way, the next significant target becomes the late‑November low at approximately $84,000. A move back to this level would effectively wipe out the gains of the past three weeks and could deal a serious blow to bullish confidence, particularly if it coincides with a more cautious Fed narrative.
Some analysts are already warning that a violation of deeper intraday support levels could be “catastrophic” for near‑term sentiment, opening the door to cascading liquidations and a broader reset of leveraged positions.
Liquidity pockets and the liquidation heatmap
Derivatives data offers additional clues about where price might gravitate around the FOMC announcement. The Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows a notable cluster of liquidity between $93,000 and $96,000—a zone where a large number of leveraged positions likely hold stop losses or liquidation thresholds.
This kind of liquidity pocket often acts as a magnet for price, as both algorithms and discretionary traders attempt to trigger those orders and capitalize on the resulting volatility. Above spot, probing into the $93K–$96K area could flush out short positions. Below spot, a key level to monitor is around $91,500, where another concentration of orders is thought to sit.
In practical terms, this means Bitcoin could see sharp whipsaws in both directions as the FOMC decision and Powell’s comments hit the market, with price spiking into these zones before settling on a more sustained trend.
What could Powell say—and why it matters for BTC
Beyond the headline rate cut, Powell’s tone on several issues will be crucial:
– Inflation trajectory:
If Powell signals that inflation is still not comfortably within target and hints at the possibility of pausing or slowing future cuts, risk assets could struggle, pushing BTC back toward lower support levels.
– Labor market and wage growth:
Recent soft jobs data has already rattled markets. Should Powell emphasize labor‑market resilience and downplay recession risks, markets might revise expectations for aggressive easing, dampening the “easy money” narrative that often supports Bitcoin.
– Guidance on future cuts:
Markets are sensitive to any forward guidance suggesting whether this is just one cut in a longer easing cycle or a one‑off adjustment. A more dovish roadmap could revive appetite for higher‑risk plays, giving BTC a better shot at challenging $100K.
How professional traders are positioning
Institutional and experienced traders typically prepare for events like the FOMC in several ways:
– Reducing leverage:
Elevated volatility around major macro events can wipe out over‑leveraged positions in minutes. Many market participants scale back leverage or reduce position sizes ahead of the announcement to avoid forced liquidations.
– Hedging with options:
Some traders use call and put options to hedge against large moves in either direction. For example, a BTC holder might buy protective puts below $90K while simultaneously selling covered calls near $100K to generate premium.
– Bracketed orders around key levels:
Orders are often placed just beyond support and resistance zones ($91,500, $93K–$96K, $98K, $100K) to catch breakout or breakdown moves. This can amplify volatility as multiple strategies trigger simultaneously.
Understanding these dynamics helps explain why price often overreacts in the short term before stabilizing as liquidity normalizes.
Medium‑term outlook: beyond the FOMC spike
While the immediate focus is on Powell and the rate decision, the broader Bitcoin narrative still hinges on several medium‑term drivers:
– Macro liquidity cycle:
If the rate‑cut path evolves into a full easing cycle over 2026, the environment could become increasingly favorable for Bitcoin as investors search for higher‑yield and non‑correlated assets.
– Institutional flows:
Any renewed inflows into Bitcoin‑focused financial products, custody solutions, or corporate treasuries would reinforce the case for higher long‑term price targets, especially if macro conditions remain supportive.
– Market structure and supply:
With a fixed supply and halving‑driven issuance schedule, periods of rising demand in a lower‑rate environment have historically supported large bull runs. However, this relationship is not guaranteed and can be interrupted by regulatory or macroeconomic shocks.
Risk management for individual traders
For traders and investors navigating this environment, a few principles remain essential:
– Define clear invalidation levels. For example, a swing trader might decide that a daily close below $87,500 invalidates a bullish thesis, while a break above $100K on strong volume confirms it.
– Avoid making large decisions solely during the first minutes after the FOMC announcement, when spreads widen and slippage can be severe.
– Consider scaling into or out of positions gradually rather than attempting to “catch the exact top or bottom” around such a major catalyst.
– Always align trade size and leverage with a risk tolerance that assumes multiple scenarios, including a rapid move down to $84,000 or a sharp breakout toward $100,000 and beyond.
Bottom line: a decisive moment for Bitcoin
Heading into the final Fed meeting of 2025, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads between powerful resistance near $94,000–$100,000 and a stacked set of supports stretching down toward $84,000.
A widely expected 25 bps cut may not be enough on its own to shift the trend; instead, the nuances of Powell’s speech and the market’s evolving expectations for future policy will likely drive the next major move.
If BTC can reclaim the 50‑day SMA around $98,000, convert $93,300–$94,000 into firm support, and break decisively above $100,000, a path toward the $108,000–$110,000 region opens. Failure to do so, especially if combined with a less‑dovish Fed, could see price revisiting $90K, $87.5K, and potentially the $84,000 low, unwinding weeks of gains and resetting the market’s bullish ambitions.
Every trading and investment decision in this context involves significant risk. Market conditions can change quickly, particularly around major macroeconomic events, and participants should perform their own analysis and act in line with their financial situation and risk tolerance.