Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Offload 325,600 BTC — Largest Monthly Sell-Off Since July 2025
Bitcoin’s long-term investor cohort has just triggered its most significant monthly sell-off in almost a year, offloading an estimated 325,600 BTC within the past 30 days. This substantial distribution, highlighted in on-chain data and confirmed by market analysts, represents the steepest reduction in long-term holdings since July 2025, raising questions about investor sentiment, market timing, and potential macroeconomic catalysts.
Long-Term Holders (LTHs)—typically defined as wallets that have held Bitcoin for over 155 days—are often viewed as the most steadfast participants in the crypto ecosystem. Their behavior offers insight into broader market cycles. The recent sharp decline in LTH-held supply signals a major shift in dynamics, suggesting that some of these experienced investors are seizing the opportunity to realize gains or reposition amid increasing market uncertainty.
This sell-off coincides with Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase around the $113,000 level, a critical price zone that has served both as support and resistance in recent weeks. The market remains on edge ahead of the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which could greatly influence risk sentiment depending on the central bank’s stance on interest rates and liquidity management.
Analysts interpret the current LTH activity as part of a larger mid-cycle rotation, a common phenomenon during key transition points in Bitcoin’s historical price cycles. As seasoned holders liquidate portions of their positions, supply is redistributed to newer participants, which can refresh market structure and lay the foundation for future rallies—assuming macro conditions remain supportive.
According to crypto analyst Maartunn, the scale of this distribution suggests more than just isolated profit-taking. Instead, it reflects a coordinated response to macroeconomic signals such as inflation concerns, interest rate projections, and global risk appetite. Notably, this movement doesn’t necessarily indicate a bearish trend. In fact, in previous cycles, major LTH sell-offs have often preceded renewed accumulation phases once market volatility subsides.
Despite the sell pressure from long-term holders, Bitcoin’s technical posture remains relatively constructive. After facing rejection near the $117,500 resistance—a level that has repelled advances multiple times this month—BTC has pulled back to trade around $113,130. The 50-period moving average on the 4-hour chart now serves as immediate support, while the 100- and 200-period moving averages, clustered around the $111,000–$112,000 range, offer deeper support levels that could stabilize price in the near term.
If Bitcoin manages to defend these technical zones while macroeconomic events unfold, the current phase may ultimately serve as a healthy reset. Such resets, characterized by supply redistribution and temporary consolidation, are often necessary to sustain longer-term uptrends. The key lies in how quickly the market can absorb this newly available supply and whether fresh demand enters to balance the equation.
Moreover, a dovish tone from the Fed—potentially signaling a pause or slowdown in interest rate hikes—could be a catalyst for renewed upside in Bitcoin and other risk assets. This scenario would likely encourage sidelined capital to re-enter the market, absorbing excess supply and reigniting bullish momentum.
On the contrary, a more hawkish policy stance from the central bank may prolong the current consolidation, delaying any significant breakout. In that case, Bitcoin could oscillate within a wider range, with long-term moving averages acting as dynamic support and resistance zones until a clearer macro narrative emerges.
Beyond technical and macroeconomic factors, behavioral indicators also point to a broader shift in investor psychology. The recent surge in short-term profit-taking metrics, such as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), suggests that many newer investors are seizing the opportunity to lock in gains. This aligns with the pattern of capital rotating from more experienced hands to newer market entrants.
Meanwhile, whale activity has also picked up. Several large wallets that had been underwater for months have returned to profitability, prompting renewed movement on-chain. Over 1.14 million BTC previously held at a loss has now re-entered the green zone, which may further incentivize strategic repositioning.
Historical precedents also show that such large-scale LTH distributions often precede major shifts in market structure. For instance, similar patterns were observed before Bitcoin’s 2021 rally and during the 2019 recovery. In both cases, the market underwent a redistribution phase before resuming its upward trajectory.
The increased volatility anticipated around the Fed’s announcement could serve as the trigger for Bitcoin’s next directional move. If the market interprets the policy tone as supportive, BTC could break above the stubborn $117,500 resistance and target higher levels, potentially establishing a new base above $120,000. In contrast, failure to hold key support zones could open the door for a deeper correction, possibly retesting the $105,000–$107,000 range.
From a broader perspective, these developments emphasize the cyclical nature of crypto markets. Long-term holders locking in profits is not inherently bearish—it often reflects confidence that the asset has appreciated sufficiently to justify exits or reallocation. The key question now is whether the market has matured enough to absorb this wave of supply and attract new capital to sustain the next phase of growth.
In conclusion, the recent 325,600 BTC sell-off by long-term holders marks a pivotal moment in the current cycle. While it introduces short-term uncertainty, it also creates opportunities for fresh accumulation. As the market awaits clarity from central banks and macroeconomic forces, Bitcoin appears to be navigating a classic redistribution phase—one that could ultimately set the stage for a renewed leg higher if conditions align.