Profit-Taking Pressure Builds on Bitcoin as “Autumn Phase” Unfolds, Morgan Stanley Advises Caution
Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is currently facing intensified selling pressure as investors begin locking in profits amid what financial analysts at Morgan Stanley describe as the asset’s “fall season.” According to the firm, this phase typically signals the end of a bullish cycle and the beginning of a short-term correction, prompting heightened caution among traders.
Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, explains that Bitcoin historically moves in a four-year cycle — three years of gains followed by a year of consolidation or decline. Speaking on a crypto-focused podcast, he likened the current market phase to the harvesting season in agriculture. “We’re in fall,” Galindo said. “It’s the time to reap what was sown — a season for realizing gains.”
On November 5, Bitcoin slipped below the psychologically significant $99,000 mark, also breaching its 365-day moving average — a technical signal often associated with bearish momentum. The decline was accompanied by broader weakness in risk assets, partly triggered by cooling investor interest in artificial intelligence and technology stocks.
By midweek, Bitcoin had retreated nearly 3%, settling around $103,000 after briefly reaching $107,000. Analysts at CoinSwitch identified immediate support levels between $100,000 and $102,000, while resistance remains firm near the $110,000 range. This price behavior reflects a fragile balance between profit-taking and dip-buying sentiment.
Adding to the uncertainty, liquidity across the digital asset market has weakened. Wintermute, a major crypto market maker, reports stagnation in key liquidity sources, including stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and digital asset reserves. This stagnation increases the risk of price swings, particularly as leveraged traders begin to unwind their positions.
The broader crypto market has not been immune to the downturn. Ethereum dropped over 3.5% to $3,432, while altcoins such as Solana, Cardano, and Hyperliquid suffered steeper declines exceeding 8%, contributing to a 0.6% contraction in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, now estimated at $3.52 trillion.
Despite short-term volatility, Morgan Stanley remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term utility. Michael Cyprys, the firm’s head of U.S. brokers and asset managers research, emphasized the growing perception of Bitcoin as a digital equivalent of gold and a strategic hedge against inflation. “Institutional investors increasingly view Bitcoin through a macroeconomic lens,” he stated.
Supporting this narrative, spot Bitcoin ETFs now collectively hold assets exceeding $137 billion, while Ethereum-focused ETFs manage an additional $22.4 billion. These figures underscore the increasing institutional adoption of digital assets, even as retail sentiment fluctuates.
Elsewhere, infrastructure developments continue to progress. London BTC Company Limited has expanded its operations into North America, focusing on sustainable mining powered by renewable energy. This shift reflects a broader industry trend toward environmental responsibility and operational efficiency, suggesting a maturing market ecosystem.
Looking ahead, the market may face heightened volatility in the coming months. As liquidity remains thin and macroeconomic headwinds persist, traders are likely to tread cautiously. However, the fundamental case for Bitcoin — particularly as a hedge against fiat currency debasement — remains intact.
Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic indicators, including inflation data and interest rate decisions from central banks, which could influence crypto market sentiment. Additionally, regulatory developments across major jurisdictions, such as the U.S., Brazil, and the European Union, are expected to shape the next phase of the digital asset space.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin must reclaim its 365-day moving average and break above the $110,000 resistance to resume upward momentum. Until then, the risk of deeper corrections remains, especially if profit-taking accelerates or external shocks hit global markets.
In the context of the ongoing crypto cycle, market watchers stress the importance of strategic planning. While short-term traders may seek to capitalize on volatility, long-term holders are advised to maintain perspective. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has repeatedly recovered from corrections, often setting new highs in subsequent cycles.
As the market enters this transitional “fall season,” the message from Morgan Stanley is clear: it’s time for calculated decisions. While the long-term trajectory for Bitcoin appears promising, short-term prudence could be the key to navigating the current landscape effectively.