Bitcoin May Be Poised for a Bullish Breakout — But Only If Key Resistance Levels Fall
Bitcoin (BTC) has been holding its ground above the psychologically significant $100,000 mark, maintaining this level for several days despite market headwinds. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of analytics firm CryptoQuant, this ongoing consolidation could present an attractive buying opportunity—provided that certain price levels are reclaimed.
Ju believes that Bitcoin’s current price range, though under pressure from sellers, offers a compelling entry point for investors who maintain a positive outlook on macroeconomic conditions. “Selling pressure remains significant,” he noted, “but if macro conditions improve, now could be a good time to buy.”
Key Resistance Zone: $108K–$110K
Analysts agree that a break above the $108,000 to $110,000 resistance zone could act as a critical bullish catalyst. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim and establish this range as new support, it could ignite a stronger upward trend. Currently, BTC is hovering around $105,200, having briefly tested $107,500 before facing rejection. The next moves will be crucial in determining whether this pivot zone holds.
Swissblock analysts emphasized this area as a potential inflection point. “Reclaiming the $108K–$110K level and holding it is essential. Momentum is starting to build, and selling pressure is gradually easing,” they stated. Bitfinex analysts echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that a full return to bullish momentum would require BTC to recover the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which currently sits at $112,500.
Macro Factors Could Provide the Spark
Several macroeconomic developments could serve as tailwinds for Bitcoin’s next leg upward. These include a potential resolution to the U.S. government shutdown, the continuation or reversal of quantitative tightening (QT), a possible series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and speculation about a more dovish successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
These broader financial shifts would likely inject new liquidity into the market, benefiting high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. If these trends materialize, they could reduce selling pressure and support a more sustained BTC rally.
Selling Pressure Diminishes, But Whales Still Dominate
Despite lingering bearish sentiment, on-chain data suggests that selling pressure has notably declined. Bitcoin’s realized profit — a metric that reflects profits taken by sellers — has stabilized at $1–$2 billion weekly since September, down from a peak of over $4 billion in July when long-term holders offloaded large positions.
Yet, whale activity continues to outweigh the cumulative demand from institutional buyers such as digital asset treasury firms and ETFs. Exchange-traded funds, in particular, have seen net outflows throughout November, albeit at a slowing pace. This institutional hesitation has limited BTC’s ability to break out decisively.
QCP Capital pointed out that unless this legacy supply is absorbed, Bitcoin is likely to stay range-bound in the near term, with an upside ceiling near $118,000.
ETF Flows and Treasury Demand Lag Behind
While ETFs were once seen as the cornerstone of institutional adoption, their recent performance has been underwhelming. Net flows have remained in the red, reflecting broader uncertainty in financial markets. Digital asset treasury firms, including Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), have also shown reduced activity, contributing to the subdued demand landscape.
Despite this, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. If ETF flows turn positive and treasury firms resume accumulation, these sources of demand could provide the additional push needed for BTC to break resistance.
What to Watch in the Coming Weeks
For investors and traders, the coming days and weeks will be pivotal. The key areas to monitor include:
– BTC’s ability to hold above $100K
– A decisive reclaim of the $108K–$110K resistance zone
– Shifts in ETF net flows and treasury firm activity
– Updates on macroeconomic policy in the U.S., especially Fed interest rate decisions
– Changes in whale behavior and long-term holder movement
If these variables align favorably, Bitcoin could transition from its current consolidation phase into a sustained bullish trend.
Accumulation Patterns Show Subtle Strength
Despite the lack of aggressive price action, subtle signs of accumulation are emerging. On-chain metrics show that smaller retail and mid-sized wallets are steadily increasing their BTC holdings. This silent accumulation phase often precedes major market moves, suggesting that patient investors are positioning themselves ahead of a potential breakout.
Technical Indicators Point to Growing Momentum
Technical analysis supports the notion of a possible bullish reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stabilizing from oversold levels, while moving averages are starting to flatten out after a prolonged downtrend. If volume increases along with a price breakout past $110K, it could confirm the beginning of a new upward leg.
Volatility Compression May Precede Expansion
Bitcoin’s current tight trading range is marked by low volatility, which historically has preceded explosive moves. As volatility compresses, tension builds within the market. A break of this range in either direction could lead to a sharp move, with bulls hoping for an upside breakout above $110K as the trigger.
Investor Sentiment Remains Cautiously Bullish
Sentiment indicators show a cautious optimism among crypto market participants. Fear and Greed indices are hovering in neutral territory, reflecting a balance between bullish expectations and macroeconomic caution. If sentiment tips further toward greed, spurred by positive policy news or technical breakouts, it could fuel a momentum-driven rally.
Conclusion: Waiting for Confirmation
While Bitcoin’s current consolidation above $100K shows resilience, the market is at a crossroads. A move above the $108K–$110K resistance zone could serve as a turning point, potentially signaling the start of a renewed uptrend. Until then, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, with macroeconomic conditions, institutional demand, and technical breakouts serving as critical variables in BTC’s next move.