Bitcoin ETFs log $410M in one-day outflows as Standard Chartered cuts BTC target to $100K
United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a sharp reversal in flows on Thursday, with redemptions surging just as Standard Chartered lowered its medium-term price outlook for the largest cryptocurrency.
According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs registered approximately $410.4 million in outflows in a single day, pushing weekly net flows into negative territory at around $375.1 million. Unless Friday delivers a meaningful rebound in demand, the products are heading for their fourth straight week of net redemptions.
Assets under management in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are now hovering close to $80 billion, a steep decline from the almost $170 billion peak seen in October 2025. The drop in AUM reflects both falling prices and sustained investor withdrawals after a period of strong early-year inflows.
Standard Chartered slashes 2026 Bitcoin forecast
The renewed selling coincided with a notable shift in expectations from Standard Chartered. The bank trimmed its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $150,000 to $100,000 and warned that the market could see significantly lower levels before any sustainable recovery.
In its latest report, the bank projected that Bitcoin prices could slide to around $50,000 in the coming months, with Ether potentially dropping toward $1,400. Only after retesting those lower levels does the bank expect a more constructive phase, with year-end targets of roughly $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ether.
The revised outlook underscores a growing sense among institutional analysts that the current downtrend may not yet have fully exhausted itself, even if longer-term bullish narratives remain intact.
Broad-based outflows across Bitcoin ETFs
Redemptions were spread across all 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products, signaling a broad deterioration in sentiment rather than isolated weakness in a single fund. The largest selling pressure hit vehicles managed by some of the biggest asset managers in the world.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) led the day’s withdrawals, with investors pulling about $157.6 million. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund was close behind, shedding approximately $104.1 million. Other issuers also saw net selling, though at smaller individual volumes, contributing to the sector-wide negative flows.
The synchronized nature of the outflows suggests that both retail and institutional participants are engaging in de-risking, profit-taking, or tactical reallocations as macro uncertainty and shifting price forecasts weigh on risk assets.
Ether and XRP ETFs follow Bitcoin lower
The weakness was not confined to Bitcoin products. Ether ETFs also came under sustained pressure, with about $113.1 million in outflows recorded in a single day. This pushed the week’s net redemptions in ETH-focused funds to around $171.4 million, and, like Bitcoin, these products appear poised for a possible fourth consecutive week of losses.
XRP ETFs, which had previously enjoyed a relatively stable flow pattern, registered their first outflows since Feb. 3. Investors withdrew approximately $6.4 million, marking a notable shift in tone for these products as well.
The synchronized ETF redemptions across multiple large-cap digital assets point to a broader risk-off environment in the crypto sector rather than a problem isolated to Bitcoin alone.
Solana ETFs stand out with modest inflows
Amid the sea of red, Solana ETFs were one of the few bright spots. Funds tracking Solana registered around $2.7 million in net inflows, bucking the broader trend of crypto ETF selling.
Although the figure is modest compared with Bitcoin and Ether flows, the contrast is significant. Continued interest in Solana-based products indicates that some investors remain willing to rotate within the crypto market rather than exit entirely, favoring networks they view as high-growth or high-beta plays during downturns.
This divergence also highlights how the market is becoming more nuanced: rather than treating all digital assets as a single risk bucket, investors are increasingly differentiating based on perceived technology, ecosystem momentum, and potential upside.
Analysts see $55,000 as key support – but not yet a final bottom
Standard Chartered’s revised projections line up with other analytical models suggesting that Bitcoin has not yet tested its primary on-chain support zone. CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics platform, reiterated that the realized price support for Bitcoin currently clusters around $55,000.
In its weekly update, the firm characterized roughly $55,000 as the “ultimate bear market bottom” based on current data. Importantly, that level has not been reached in the current cycle, implying that the market may still have room to fall before a durable bottom is in place.
CryptoQuant’s market cycle indicators signal that Bitcoin remains in a bearish phase, but not yet in what it calls an “extreme bear” regime. Historically, that more severe phase tends to coincide with the start of multi-month bottoming processes, where prices consolidate at depressed levels before a new uptrend can form.
Long-term holders are not capitulating – yet
Despite the recent uptick in volatility and ETF withdrawals, on-chain behavior from long-term holders (LTHs) does not yet resemble the kind of capitulation usually seen near cycle lows. Current data suggests that many of these investors are selling roughly around their cost basis, rather than locking in deep losses.
In previous bear markets, sustainable bottoms tended to emerge only after long-term holders absorbed drawdowns of 30–40% on their positions. That kind of pain level can flush out weaker hands, reset market leverage, and transfer coins into what often becomes “stronger” hands with longer holding horizons.
The fact that LTHs are not yet in that deep-loss territory suggests that more downside or a prolonged period of sideways trading may be needed before a full reset occurs. For tactical traders and long-term investors alike, this nuance matters: prices can look “cheap” versus a recent peak, but still be early relative to historical cycle bottoms.
Price action: Bitcoin hovers near $66,000
On Thursday, Bitcoin traded around the $66,000 level, with an intraday dip to approximately $65,250 based on market pricing data. While these levels are well below recent highs, they remain significantly above the $50,000–$55,000 levels discussed by Standard Chartered and CryptoQuant as potential downside targets or support zones.
This gap between current prices and projected floors creates an environment of uncertainty. Short-term traders may see opportunities in volatility, while longer-horizon investors must weigh the risk of further drawdowns against the possibility of missing a sudden rebound should macro conditions or flows improve.
What ETF outflows actually mean for the Bitcoin market
Heavy outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are often interpreted as a straightforward bearish signal, but the reality is more nuanced:
– Outflows indicate that authorized participants are redeeming ETF shares for the underlying Bitcoin, which can then be sold on the market or reallocated elsewhere.
– In the near term, this can add selling pressure, particularly when redemptions cluster around key macro or narrative shifts, such as a major bank revising its forecast.
– However, ETFs are only one channel of demand. Activity on crypto-native exchanges, OTC desks, and in derivatives markets can offset or even overwhelm ETF dynamics if other buyer cohorts step in.
For now, the alignment of ETF redemptions, cautious bank projections, and on-chain signals that have not yet screamed “capitulation” collectively argues for a still-fragile market structure.
Why Standard Chartered’s new target matters for sentiment
Large, recognizable financial institutions do not set the fundamental value of Bitcoin, but they strongly influence sentiment among traditional investors. When a major bank moves its 2026 target down from $150,000 to $100,000 and publicly discusses the possibility of a fall to $50,000, several effects can emerge:
– Risk committees at funds and family offices may become more conservative in their crypto allocations.
– Investors who previously anchored on higher targets may reassess their risk-reward assumptions.
– Short-term traders can use these revised targets as justification to increase bearish positioning or reduce exposure.
Even if long-term crypto-native investors remain unfazed, the marginal dollar in this market increasingly comes from institutions and ETF flows, making such revisions an important driver of behavior.
How investors can interpret the current phase of the cycle
Given the data and forecasts in play, the current environment can be summarized as a mid-cycle or late-cycle correction rather than a confirmed end-of-cycle collapse:
– Market cycle indicators point to a bear phase, but not the historically “extreme” capitulation zone.
– Long-term holders are not absorbing the kind of deep unrealized losses usually associated with major bottoms.
– ETF outflows suggest risk-off sentiment, but there is still selective interest in assets like Solana.
– Large financial institutions remain broadly constructive on multi-year horizons, even if they temper upside projections.
For investors, this suggests a few practical takeaways (not financial advice, but structural observations):
1. Volatility may persist: With significant downside levels still untested, sharp swings in both directions are likely as the market searches for equilibrium.
2. Patience is key for long-term strategies: Historically, the best long-term entries have occurred not at the first major drawdown, but after extended periods of consolidation and capitulation.
3. Diversification within crypto matters: The contrast between Solana inflows and broad outflows in BTC, ETH, and XRP ETFs shows that rotations within the sector can create relative winners, even in a weak tape.
4. Watch on-chain and ETF data together: ETF flows reflect one side of the institutional story, while on-chain data offers insight into holder behavior and potential stress points.
The road ahead: What to watch next
In the coming weeks and months, several factors will likely determine whether Bitcoin approaches the $50,000–$55,000 zone flagged by analysts or stabilizes sooner:
– Macro conditions: Interest rate expectations, inflation data, and broader risk sentiment in equities and bonds will feed directly into appetite for crypto exposure.
– Regulatory developments: Any change in the regulatory outlook for digital assets – positive or negative – can materially impact ETF flows and institutional participation.
– Derivatives positioning: Funding rates, options skew, and open interest may signal whether the market is heavily leaning bullish or bearish, and how vulnerable it is to squeezes.
– Behavior of long-term holders: If unrealized losses among LTHs deepen significantly and on-chain data starts to show genuine capitulation, that could indicate that a more durable bottoming process is underway.
For now, the combination of accelerating ETF outflows, a downgraded institutional price target, and untested support zones paints a picture of a market that has corrected meaningfully, but may not yet have completed its full downside journey.