Bitcoin Buy Signal Strengthens as Binance BTC/Stablecoin Ratio Points Toward Impending Supply Shock
Bitcoin’s recent market behavior is stirring optimism among traders and analysts, as a key on-chain indicator—Binance’s BTC to stablecoin reserve ratio—flashes a buy signal for the third time this market cycle. Historically, this rare signal has anticipated strong bullish moves, and its reappearance suggests a potential supply shock that could ignite the next leg up in Bitcoin’s price.
Following the October 10 liquidation event, which wiped out billions in leveraged positions and triggered a cascade of volatility across both derivatives and spot markets, investor sentiment remained cautious. Many exited to stablecoins, while others began quietly accumulating. This divergence is now visible in the composition of Binance’s reserves, where stablecoin balances are growing relative to Bitcoin holdings—an early sign that demand might soon overwhelm supply.
On-chain analyst Darkfost emphasizes the significance of this development. According to his insights, the BTC/stablecoin ratio has acted as a reliable precursor to price rallies. The first instance in January 2023 saw Bitcoin surge from $16,600 to $24,800. A second occurrence in March 2023 preceded an explosive rally to $73,000. The most recent signal, seen again in March 2025, aligned with BTC’s breakout from $78,600 to $123,500. Each case followed a period of market stress or consolidation, reinforcing the indicator’s reliability during macro trend shifts.
The current market setup mirrors these historical precedents. Bitcoin is consolidating just under $113,000, attempting to reclaim bullish momentum after bouncing from its 200-day moving average near $108,000. However, resistance at $117,500 continues to deflect upward moves. The convergence of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages around $114,000–$115,000 adds further friction. A decisive breakout and close above this zone could open the door to targets at $120,000 and beyond, where previous liquidity clusters lie.
Crucially, the 200-day MA remains a key support level. Holding above it maintains the broader bullish structure and indicates that the recent price action is more of a healthy consolidation than a trend reversal.
The underlying cause behind the bullish signal lies in the shrinking Bitcoin reserves on Binance, paired with a growing pool of stablecoins. This dynamic hints at significant buying power sitting on the sidelines, ready to deploy once a clear bullish confirmation emerges. With fewer BTC available on the exchange, any surge in buying interest could result in a classic supply squeeze—where demand rapidly outpaces supply, pushing prices higher.
This setup is particularly notable because such accumulation patterns typically unfold during bear markets or after steep corrections. Seeing this behavior now, during a phase of consolidation near structural support, may indicate that institutional players and long-term holders are preparing for the next big leg up.
Moreover, the macroeconomic backdrop could soon become a tailwind for crypto markets. Traders are closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions. If the Fed signals a shift toward easing or maintains a dovish tone amid weakening economic indicators, risk assets like Bitcoin could benefit from renewed capital inflows.
Other metrics also support the bullish narrative. The Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is approaching levels that historically indicate potential profit-taking. However, if it resets without major selling pressure, it could signal that holders are confident in further upside. Meanwhile, dormant wallets have started moving coins after years of inactivity—an event often associated with market turning points.
New whales have also returned to profitability, with over 1.14 million BTC no longer underwater. This shift in holder profitability increases the likelihood of stronger hands remaining in the market, reducing the risk of panic selling on minor dips.
While Bitcoin continues to face resistance in the short term, the underlying on-chain dynamics and historical signals suggest a brewing bullish phase. The combination of falling BTC reserves, rising stablecoin liquidity, and macro uncertainty could create a perfect storm for a supply-side shock that lifts prices sharply.
Investors should pay close attention to upcoming daily closes and volume profiles. If BTC convincingly reclaims the $115,000–$117,500 zone with strong volume, it would confirm buyer dominance and set the stage for a run toward new highs. Conversely, a breakdown below the 200-day MA could invalidate the bullish thesis and trigger a reassessment of near-term positions.
Looking ahead, the crypto market appears to be entering a phase where fundamentals, on-chain indicators, and macro drivers are increasingly aligned. For traders and investors seeking strategic entry points, the current environment may present one of the most compelling accumulation opportunities since early 2023.
As always, risk management remains critical. While the setup is promising, external shocks, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic shifts can quickly alter the market landscape. Still, for those watching the BTC/stablecoin ratio on Binance, the signal is clear: the balance is tilting, and the next big move may be closer than it seems.