Bitcoin Nears Final Phase of Bull Market: When Will the Price Peak?
Bitcoin has recently shown signs of fatigue, with its price action over the past week reflecting a broader mood of uncertainty and caution across the cryptocurrency market. Despite a favorable macroeconomic backdrop—including a recent interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve on October 29—the leading digital asset failed to gain significant upward momentum, dipping below the critical psychological threshold of $110,000.
Market analysts are now watching closely as Bitcoin appears to be entering the final stage of its current bull cycle. According to Joao Wedson, CEO and founder of blockchain analytics firm Alphractal, BTC could be approaching a pivotal moment. His projections suggest that the asset could soon reach a new all-time high, with the potential peak falling between $143,000 and $146,000.
Wedson’s forecast is based on the Max Intersect SMA Model—a technical indicator that has historically pinpointed the climax of previous Bitcoin bull runs. This model tracks a specialized moving average known to align closely with market cycle tops. In Wedson’s view, the market is now in the “distribution phase”—a period typically characterized by sideways price action and heightened volatility as larger players begin to offload their holdings.
Currently, the Smart Model price—a secondary indicator used in Wedson’s analysis—has climbed from roughly $60,000 to over $62,600. He notes that if this model approaches the $68,000 range, it could signal the precise day when Bitcoin sets a new all-time high. However, Wedson also warns that such a surge might mark the climax of the current cycle, urging investors to tread carefully.
Bitcoin’s price behavior supports this narrative. The asset has been trading in a tight range, with market participants unsure whether to commit to long or short positions. The sideways movement is a hallmark of the distribution phase, where liquidity is sought both above and below current levels. According to Wedson, this is also the time when investor sentiment becomes overly optimistic—some are even speculating that BTC might hit $250,000. Historically, such euphoric expectations often precede a significant market downturn.
At the time of publishing, Bitcoin is priced around $110,120, showing a marginal 0.1% gain in the last 24 hours. However, this minor uptick does little to offset the broader trend: over the past seven days, BTC has dropped more than 1%, according to data from market tracking platforms.
Despite the short-term weakness, the broader fundamentals of Bitcoin remain strong. Institutional interest continues to grow, with new financial products like Bitcoin and altcoin ETFs paving the way for mainstream adoption. Additionally, on-chain data shows a steady increase in wallet addresses holding long-term positions, suggesting that many investors are preparing for a potential rally.
However, it’s crucial to recognize that bull markets are cyclical. As Bitcoin edges closer to its predicted peak, the likelihood of entering a bear market rises. Historically, after each major high, the cryptocurrency has experienced sharp corrections ranging from 30% to 80%. This has led experts like Wedson to caution against irrational exuberance and remind investors to consider exit strategies.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin must overcome several resistance levels before it can reach the $143K–$146K range. These include previously established highs around $120,000 and $135,000. Strong volume and institutional support will be essential for breaking through these barriers. If the crypto fails to clear these levels decisively, the anticipated peak may fall short of expectations.
Moreover, macroeconomic developments could play a pivotal role. Global inflation trends, interest rate policies, and geopolitical instability continue to influence investor sentiment across all financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. A resurgence of inflation or tighter monetary policies could suppress risk appetite, potentially stalling Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
It’s also worth noting that the halving event—when the Bitcoin mining reward is cut in half, typically driving scarcity—is still a powerful long-term driver. The next halving is expected to occur in the coming months, which historically has preceded major price rallies. However, whether this event will fuel further gains or arrive too late to sustain the current cycle remains open to debate.
In summary, Bitcoin appears to be in the final stages of its current bull market, with expert projections placing the potential peak between $143,000 and $146,000. While technical indicators and on-chain data support the idea of a new all-time high, caution is warranted. The market’s current phase is marked by uncertainty, and history suggests that a euphoric rally is often followed by a steep correction. Investors should remain vigilant, diversify their portfolios, and prepare for multiple scenarios as the market continues to evolve.
As always, timing the exact top is notoriously difficult—even for seasoned analysts. But by staying informed, monitoring key indicators, and approaching the market with a balanced strategy, investors can position themselves to navigate the final leg of the bull cycle with greater confidence.