Bitcoin $150K price calls are ‘drying up’ – and that may be exactly what the market needs, according to crypto sentiment analytics firm Santiment.
The platform notes that the loudest predictions for imminent new all-time highs have noticeably faded, with far fewer market participants publicly targeting eye‑watering levels such as 150,000-200,000 dollars per Bitcoin. Even more conservative calls in the 50,000-100,000 dollar range are appearing less frequently in public discourse.
Santiment interprets this cooldown in hype as a constructive development rather than a sign of weakness. The firm points to a visible drop in classic bull‑market behavior: fewer “get rich quick” narratives, fewer “Lambo” memes, and less aggressive retail FOMO. In their view, this suggests that speculative euphoria is giving way to more grounded expectations, a phase that historically tends to precede healthier, more sustainable market structures.
At the same time, the tone of conversation around Bitcoin has shifted. After a period of “extreme bearishness” in social media comments and discussion, Santiment’s sentiment gauge – which tracks the ratio of bullish to bearish messages – has climbed back to what it describes as “neutral territory.” This means neither fear nor greed is overwhelmingly dominant right now.
Paradoxically, a neutral consensus can make trading decisions harder, Santiment warns. When sentiment is very bullish or very bearish, contrarian strategies are often clearer: traders can fade the crowd. In a neutral environment, the signal from sentiment metrics becomes less decisive. The firm suggests that in such phases, traders should either refrain from making aggressive bets solely on sentiment data or at least significantly downweight its importance in their analysis.
The cooling of sky‑high price targets also comes after a notable mismatch between earlier optimistic forecasts and actual market performance. Well‑known Bitcoin advocates, including the co‑founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, and BitMine chair Tom Lee, had publicly floated the possibility of Bitcoin reaching up to 250,000 dollars in 2025. Reality played out differently: Bitcoin topped out around 126,100 dollars in October before rolling over into a downtrend and ultimately closing the year below its starting level.
The weakness extended into the start of the new year. On February 6, Bitcoin fell back toward the 60,000 dollar area, continuing the corrective phase. Since then, the price has staged a partial recovery, trading near 67,847 dollars at the time of writing, according to market data. That rebound has not been strong enough to reignite widespread “moon” narratives, which have remained muted compared with earlier in the cycle.
Interestingly, not all sentiment measures are aligned. While Santiment’s social‑media‑based indicators show a shift back to neutral mood, broader gauges of market psychology still paint a far more anxious picture. A prominent composite metric that tracks overall sentiment across the crypto market recently remained stuck in its “Extreme Fear” band with a reading of 8, signaling that, on average, investors remain highly risk‑averse and cautious.
Santiment also highlights that beneath the surface of price and sentiment, Bitcoin’s on‑chain activity is raising some flags. Key indicators of network usage – including total transaction volume, the number of active addresses and overall network growth – have been “steadily declining.” In plain terms, fewer coins are moving, fewer addresses are interacting, and new participants are joining at a slower pace.
According to Santiment, this slowdown in network utility does not automatically imply immediate bearish price action. However, it does suggest a degree of dormancy: a large share of traders and long‑term holders appear to be sitting on the sidelines, avoiding major repositioning. In a truly expanding bull phase, on‑chain data would typically reflect rising user engagement and stronger transactional demand, indicating genuine adoption rather than merely speculative positioning.
This apparent disconnect – moderate price recovery, neutral sentiment, but weakening on‑chain activity and persistent fear – creates a nuanced backdrop for Bitcoin. It challenges the common assumption that rising prices alone confirm a robust uptrend. Instead, the current environment looks more like a consolidation or digestion phase, where the market is reassessing previous expectations and risk appetite.
For traders and longer‑term investors, the fading of aggressive price calls has several implications:
First, a reduction in speculative noise often coincides with the unwinding of overcrowded trades. When everyone expects a vertical rally to six‑figure levels, leverage tends to build up, increasing the risk of sharp liquidations and cascading sell‑offs. As those expectations cool and excessive leverage gets flushed out, price swings can become less violent and the market more stable.
Second, the move toward neutral sentiment may create a more balanced field between bulls and bears. While this can reduce the clarity of short‑term contrarian opportunities, it also lowers the probability of extreme emotional overreactions to news. In such a setting, macro factors, liquidity conditions, and technical structures can have more influence than meme‑driven hype cycles.
Third, declining on‑chain activity calls for closer monitoring of whether Bitcoin is being used primarily as a trading instrument or as a network with real‑world utility. If prices rise while on‑chain metrics trend lower, it is often a sign that speculative positioning, derivatives activity, or external capital inflows are driving the move more than organic usage. Sustained long‑term rallies are typically supported by both price appreciation and growing network engagement.
At the same time, one should be cautious not to overinterpret short‑term declines in activity. Periods of consolidation often see a drop in on‑chain metrics as participants wait for clearer direction. Long‑term holders may choose to remain inactive, and speculative capital may rotate into other assets temporarily. The key question is whether this lull transitions into renewed growth in wallets, transactions and user participation once volatility returns.
From a behavioral finance perspective, the current mix of fading euphoria, lingering fear and neutral sentiment aligns with a classic mid‑cycle scenario. Initial optimism has been partially corrected, but a full capitulation event has not occurred. Instead, the market appears to be normalizing, moving away from extreme emotional states. Historically, such environments can either precede a renewed leg higher once fundamental and macro conditions improve, or mark the early stages of a prolonged range‑bound period.
Risk management becomes especially important in this kind of ambiguous landscape. Since sentiment signals are weaker and on‑chain usage is not yet confirming aggressive expansion, traders might place more emphasis on position sizing, diversified strategies, and scenario planning. Rather than chasing bold headline targets, many market participants may opt for incremental positioning, dollar‑cost averaging, or hedged approaches that can withstand both upside surprises and deeper corrections.
For longer‑term believers in Bitcoin’s narrative as a store of value or hedge against monetary debasement, the current “cooling off” phase may look relatively attractive. Historically, periods when the crowd has stopped shouting about six‑figure prices have often offered better entry points than euphoric peaks. Lower levels of public excitement can translate into more rational valuations, less overheated leverage and a less crowded trade.
On the other hand, investors should also pay close attention to macroeconomic variables: interest rates, liquidity conditions, regulatory developments, and the performance of risk assets more broadly. Bitcoin does not trade in isolation. In past cycles, tightening financial conditions or significant macro shocks have been able to override otherwise constructive on‑chain or sentiment signals.
Altogether, Santiment’s assessment that “retail optimism is fading” and that exuberant 150,000-200,000 dollar calls are disappearing does not necessarily signal the end of Bitcoin’s long‑term growth story. Instead, it may indicate a shift from a narrative‑driven, hype‑heavy phase toward a more measured, data‑driven market. In that context, the focus is likely to move from loud predictions to quieter metrics: network health, liquidity depth, institutional flows and macro alignment.
Whether Bitcoin’s next major move is higher or lower, the current backdrop underscores a key lesson for market participants: extreme optimism and extreme pessimism both tend to be temporary. As the discourse cools and sentiment settles into neutral territory, disciplined strategies, careful analysis and realistic expectations may matter more than ever – especially in a market where the loudest price calls are finally starting to fade.