Winklevoss‑backed crypto exchange Gemini is undertaking one of the most dramatic restructurings in its history, slashing headcount and retreating from multiple overseas markets as it pivots toward a new strategic bet: prediction markets and AI‑driven products.
The company, founded and led by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, confirmed that it plans to cut up to 25% of its global workforce. Internally, that translates to roughly 200 roles being eliminated across various departments and regions. The layoffs affect staff in the United States and Singapore in particular, as Gemini consolidates operations and reallocates resources.
At the same time, Gemini is pulling out of several major jurisdictions. The exchange will wind down its presence in the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Australia, all of which had previously been considered core to its international expansion roadmap. This marks a sharp reversal from earlier ambitions to build a truly global exchange footprint.
In a blog post outlining the changes, the Winklevoss twins acknowledged that the firm’s push into multiple foreign markets had stretched the organization too thin. They cited heavy regulatory burdens, fragmented rules across regions, and the operational complexity of complying with different legal frameworks as key reasons for the decision. According to the founders, Gemini’s structure had become unwieldy, making it harder to innovate and remain competitive.
The twins described the job cuts as a painful but necessary move to streamline the company. By reducing headcount and exiting particularly challenging jurisdictions, they argued, Gemini can sharpen its focus and align its size with its long‑term strategic priorities. They stated that trimming about a quarter of the workforce would leave Gemini “right‑sized” for its next phase of growth.
This restructuring coincides with a strategic pivot toward prediction markets, which the founders now see as one of the most promising frontiers in digital finance. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss have argued that prediction markets — platforms where users trade on the outcome of future events — could grow to rival or even surpass the scale of today’s traditional capital markets. In their view, these markets can tap into collective intelligence, price probabilities in real time, and generate forward‑looking insights that conventional financial instruments struggle to deliver.
To support this new direction, Gemini has invested heavily in obtaining the regulatory permissions needed to operate a prediction marketplace. With those licenses secured, the company launched its own platform, Gemini Predictions, in mid‑December. The exchange reports that early interest has been strong: more than 10,000 users have already participated, generating over 24 million dollars in trading volume since launch.
The founders present this transition as a natural evolution of Gemini’s mission. For nearly a decade, the company focused on building regulated infrastructure for buying, selling, and storing digital assets — what they describe as laying the groundwork for “the future of money.” Now, they are broadening that vision toward what they call a “super app” that integrates payments, investing, and prediction markets into a single ecosystem spanning both money and markets.
In practical terms, this means Gemini wants to move beyond being perceived solely as a spot crypto exchange. By concentrating on prediction markets, AI‑driven tooling, and more sophisticated financial products, the company aims to carve out a differentiated niche in an increasingly crowded industry. The leadership believes that chasing too many geographies at once has become a distraction from building these higher‑value services.
The renewed emphasis on artificial intelligence is a key part of that repositioning. Gemini has indicated that some of the freed‑up resources will be directed toward AI‑related operations, such as risk modeling, market analysis, and product personalization. AI can be particularly powerful in prediction markets, where pricing, liquidity provision, and odds calibration require continuous, data‑driven adjustments. By leaning into AI, Gemini hopes to make its marketplace more efficient, engaging, and resilient.
From a financial perspective, the shake‑up comes at a challenging time. Gemini’s stock, trading under the ticker GEMI, was recently changing hands at 6.69 dollars — down about 7% over the previous 24 hours and more than 85% below its all‑time high of 45.90 dollars. The steep decline underscores the pressure on the company to articulate a credible growth story and convince investors that its pivot can reverse the trend.
The decision to pull out of the UK, EU, and Australia also reflects broader tensions between crypto businesses and regulators. Many jurisdictions have tightened rules around custody, consumer protection, and market integrity following high‑profile collapses and enforcement actions in the sector. For mid‑sized players like Gemini, the cost of maintaining fully compliant operations across multiple legal systems can be substantial. Exiting these markets allows the company to redirect capital and management attention to fewer, higher‑conviction opportunities.
For customers in the affected regions, the exit will likely mean a phased wind‑down. Typically, such processes involve halting new account registrations, restricting certain products, and gradually closing open positions or encouraging users to withdraw their funds to other platforms or self‑custody. While the company has not publicly detailed every step, its history of emphasizing regulatory compliance suggests it will seek an orderly departure rather than an abrupt cutoff.
Internally, the layoffs mark yet another difficult chapter for employees in the crypto industry, which has been rocked by multiple rounds of staff reductions across exchanges, lenders, and Web3 startups. For Gemini’s remaining staff, the restructuring could result in leaner teams, broader responsibilities, and an increased emphasis on delivering the new prediction‑focused roadmap. The founders appear to be betting that a smaller, more agile organization will be better suited to innovate in a fast‑moving segment.
The bet on prediction markets is also a statement about where Gemini thinks the next wave of user demand will come from. Beyond simple price speculation on cryptocurrencies, prediction platforms allow users to trade on elections, sports outcomes, economic indicators, entertainment events, and a range of real‑world scenarios. If these markets can achieve deep liquidity and regulatory clarity, they could attract not only retail traders but also data scientists, institutions, and organizations seeking probabilistic forecasts.
However, this strategy is not without risks. Prediction markets sit at the intersection of finance, gambling regulations, and information markets. Many regulators still grapple with how to classify and oversee such platforms. Depending on the jurisdiction, they can face restrictions similar to betting operations or be treated as complex financial derivatives. Gemini’s decision to narrow its geographic scope can be read as an attempt to operate where the rules are clearer, rather than fighting regulatory battles on multiple fronts.
Another challenge is competition. Several projects, both centralized and decentralized, are already working on prediction platforms. To stand out, Gemini will need to leverage its brand, compliance track record, and user experience to offer something measurably better in terms of reliability, market depth, and ease of use. Its push toward a “super app” model suggests it wants to integrate prediction markets seamlessly with existing account balances, crypto holdings, and payment functions.
From a user perspective, Gemini’s pivot could ultimately change how the platform is used day to day. Active traders who primarily came for spot crypto markets may find fewer regional access points but more specialized products. Power users interested in forecasting and probabilistic trading, by contrast, might see Gemini as a more compelling destination, especially if the platform continues to roll out new event categories and advanced tools.
For the broader crypto ecosystem, Gemini’s retrenchment is emblematic of a maturing industry where unbridled expansion is giving way to more selective, strategy‑driven growth. Exchanges are increasingly forced to choose between being global generalists or focused specialists. Gemini appears to have chosen the latter path, concentrating on areas where it believes it can build a defensible advantage and long‑term revenue streams.
At the human level, the shake‑up is a reminder that innovation often comes with real costs for employees and local markets. While the founders frame the changes as essential to achieving their long‑term vision, the immediate impact is felt most acutely by staff losing their jobs and by users in regions losing direct access to the platform. How effectively Gemini manages these transitions will influence both its reputation and its ability to recruit top talent in the future.
Looking ahead, Gemini’s success will depend on whether prediction markets and AI‑powered products can grow fast enough to offset the contraction in its traditional exchange business. If the twins’ thesis proves correct and prediction markets scale to rival major capital markets, the current restructuring could be seen as a bold, early move into a transformative sector. If not, the cuts and market exits may be remembered as a sign of retreat in a highly competitive environment.
For now, Gemini stands at a crossroads: leaner, more focused, and heavily invested in a future where people do not just trade assets, but trade on information and probabilities themselves. Whether that vision can restore growth and close the gap between GEMI’s current valuation and its former highs remains an open question — one that the market will be continuously pricing in, prediction by prediction.