Crypto Predictions For 2026: Why CoinFund’s President Thinks It Will Be The Year Crypto Grows Up
CoinFund president Christopher Perkins is not betting on a flashy new meme coin or a surprise narrative to define 2026. Instead, he argues the next major phase of crypto will be shaped by something far less glamorous: regulation, consolidation, and the gradual transformation of crypto from a frontier market into a structured global industry.
In a detailed year-end thread, Perkins laid out seven key predictions for 2026, sketching a future where balance sheets, licenses and compliance matter as much as token tickers and new narratives.
Below is a deep dive into his forecast – and what it could mean for investors, builders and institutions.
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1. 2026 As “The Year Of Crypto M&A” – And A $25 Billion Deal Wave
Perkins’ strongest conviction is that 2026 will be “the year of crypto M&A” – a period defined by acquisitions, mergers, and industry rollups rather than just new token launches.
He estimates that total crypto-related mergers and acquisitions in 2025 will come in around 8.6 billion dollars. By his projection, 2026 doesn’t just edge that higher – it explodes to roughly 25 billion dollars in completed deals. In other words, not a gentle uptrend, but a regime shift.
He sees consolidation pressure coming from several directions:
– DATs, labs, and foundations merging as token projects seek scale, deeper liquidity, and sustainable business models.
– “DAT vs DAT (mNAV reckoning)” – a reference to tokenized projects and digital asset tokens facing reality on their underlying economic value, pushing weaker projects to merge, be acquired, or wind down.
– Traditional finance ↔ crypto convergence, with both sides buying capabilities they lack.
Perkins describes a two-way scramble:
– From TradFi to crypto:
“I’m behind and need to catch up” – established financial institutions seeking to acquire exchanges, infrastructure providers, or tokenization platforms rather than building from scratch.
– From crypto to TradFi:
Crypto-native firms – especially token issuers, exchanges and protocols – hunting for “operating companies, securities capabilities and licenses” to embed themselves into regulated markets.
He also highlights an “Asia → US” capital and corporate flow. As regulatory clarity in the United States improves, Perkins thinks global players from Asia will increasingly acquire or expand into US-based entities to gain regulatory standing and direct access to US capital markets.
His summary line is blunt: if 2021 was “stablecoin summer,” then summer 2026, in his view, will be “M&A summer” – a time when the winners stop just shipping tokens and start buying entire businesses.
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2. Stablecoins To $600 Billion – And Becoming Core Market Plumbing
Perkins’ second major bet is on the continued rise of stablecoins. He expects their combined market capitalization to more than double, pushing past 600 billion dollars by 2026.
Crucially, he does not anchor this forecast on retail payments hype or grand visions of everyday purchases on-chain. Instead, he focuses on three pragmatic drivers:
1. Issuer economics
Every fully-reserved stablecoin effectively sits on a pile of yield-bearing assets (typically short-term government debt or high-quality cash equivalents).
“For every stablecoin, someone is making net interest income. Who wouldn’t want one?” Perkins notes. The incentive to issue stablecoins – especially under clear regulation – is enormous.
2. Tokenization demand
As more real-world assets (bonds, funds, invoices, treasuries, carbon credits and beyond) move on-chain, traders and institutions need a neutral settlement asset. Stablecoins are perfectly positioned to become that base layer of liquidity.
3. On-chain market structure
With more trading, lending, derivatives and collateral management happening on-chain, a trusted, liquid, fiat-referenced asset becomes the default choice for clearing and settlement.
Perkins’ subtext is clear: in a world where financial infrastructure steadily migrates onto blockchains, stablecoins are not a side story – they become the rails that everything else runs on. He expects this shift to visibly accelerate in 2026, as tokenization pilots turn into large-scale deployments.
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3. A $2 Billion-Plus Hack As A Brutal Catalyst For Policy
Not all of Perkins’ predictions are optimistic. He also foresees a single security incident exceeding 2 billion dollars in losses, which he believes will rattle confidence, trigger price drawdowns, and act as a turning point for policy.
He references a sharp increase in hacking losses – citing 3.4 billion dollars stolen in 2025, a roughly 51% rise – and argues that as more assets come on-chain through tokenization and the growth of stablecoins, the attack surface inevitably grows. Hundreds of billions in value being secured by smart contracts, bridges and custodial systems amplifies systemic risk.
Perkins goes beyond standard calls for “better security” and makes a controversial historical analogy. He floats the idea of reviving a concept akin to “Letters of Marque and Reprisal” – historically, government licenses authorizing private parties to take action against enemies or pirates.
The implication is that if digital asset theft reaches a certain scale, governments may consider aggressive, unconventional tools – from state-sanctioned cyber countermeasures to bounties and offensive operations – rather than relying solely on passive regulation and compliance.
Regardless of exact policy design, Perkins’ core point is that a truly massive hack – especially one that hits a systemic stablecoin, a dominant bridge, or a major institutional custodian – could become the “Lehman moment” that finally forces regulators to move from debate to decisive action.
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4. Regulated Crypto Derivatives Make A Big US Comeback
Perkins also expects a significant shift in US-based crypto derivatives, predicting that they will “come back to the US in a major way” after years of dominance by offshore venues.
He anticipates:
– A tripling of the US share of global crypto derivatives volume.
– A “big battle for market share” as new regulated derivatives platforms launch and incumbents fight to keep their edge.
– A scenario where the CME – currently a major venue for bitcoin futures – could see its share of US crypto derivatives diluted as more competitors arrive.
The thesis rests on two pillars:
1. Regulatory clarity
In Perkins’ view, the direction of US policy is toward clear, if stringent, frameworks that enable regulated futures, options and structured products to be launched at scale. Once rules are defined, large institutions are more willing to participate.
2. Institutional trading playbook
As crypto enters what he calls its “institutional era,” he expects basis trading – profiting from the spread between spot and futures prices – to be the first logical step for many traditional firms. This is a familiar strategy in other markets and uses regulated derivatives as core tools.
Perkins also suggests that this surge in regulated derivatives activity will indirectly “breathe life back into alts.” As more institutional capital deploys into structured trades around bitcoin and ether, liquidity and risk appetite could spill over into the broader altcoin market, especially those with clearer use cases and regulatory paths.
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5. No Comprehensive US Market-Structure Bill In 2026
Despite all the talk of clarity, Perkins is realistic about politics. His fifth prediction is that a sweeping, comprehensive US market-structure bill for digital assets will not pass in 2026.
He attributes this primarily to the political calendar rather than lack of will. With a heavy midterm election cycle, he expects digital asset legislation to lose priority as lawmakers focus on core electoral issues and partisan battles.
“Midterms will take the oxygen out of the room,” he argues, suggesting that while regulators may move via rulemaking, guidance, or enforcement, a single, unifying piece of legislation covering crypto market structure, tokens, and trading venues remains out of reach in the near term.
This sets the stage for a familiar pattern: progress, but in fragmented form. More clarity for specific products (like futures or ETFs), more defined treatment of stablecoins or tokenization in certain areas – but no all-encompassing framework that settles the “commodity vs security” debate once and for all.
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6. New All-Time Highs For Bitcoin And Ether
Regulatory friction and security risks do not prevent Perkins from being bullish on the core assets. He expects both Bitcoin and Ethereum to set new all‑time highs in 2026.
This view is consistent with his broader thesis:
– Asset tokenization and the growth of stablecoins expand the on-chain economy.
– Regulated derivatives and institutional products increase access for large pools of capital.
– Consolidation and maturing infrastructure reduce some of the existential risks faced by early‑stage markets.
In that environment, bitcoin remains the primary macro “store-of-value” play with a well-known brand, while ether powers much of the programmable layer that underpins tokenization, stablecoins, and DeFi. If his projections on derivatives and institutional flows are even directionally correct, it is not difficult to see how fresh inflows push both assets to new records.
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7. NFTs Come Back – But Not As Simple JPEGs
Perkins’ final prediction is that NFTs will stage a comeback, but not in the speculative avatar-and-art form that dominated 2021.
He expects the term “NFT” to evolve from profile pictures and collectibles into infrastructure for identity, rights and access. In other words:
– Tokenized IP rights: revenue-sharing or royalty-bearing tokens tied to music, film, games and user-generated content.
– Access credentials and memberships: NFTs acting as programmable tickets, passes or loyalty memberships with built-in benefits and on-chain histories.
– Enterprise and brand integrations: NFTs used behind the scenes for supply-chain tracking, authenticity verification or gated digital experiences.
The essence of his view is that non-fungible tokens will shift from being the product to being the underlying format – the quiet backbone of digital ownership, licensing and access, often invisible to the end user.
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What This Vision Means For The Crypto Industry
Taken together, Perkins’ predictions sketch a future where crypto feels less like a speculative casino and more like a hybrid between Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and global payments infrastructure.
Key themes that emerge:
– Professionalization and consolidation – Smaller, undercapitalized players are likely to be acquired or sidelined. Surviving firms will look and operate more like regulated financial institutions or tech companies than anonymous Discord communities.
– Regulation as an enabler, not just a constraint – While some corners of the market may complain, clearer rules around stablecoins, derivatives and custody will open the door to much larger institutional participation.
– Security as systemic risk – Hacks will no longer be viewed as isolated incidents but as threats to national financial stability, prompting more assertive government responses.
– Infrastructure over hype – The most important developments may be in settlement, tokenization, and plumbing, rather than in headline-grabbing memecoins.
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Implications For Investors
If Perkins is directionally right, several practical takeaways emerge:
1. Watch consolidation targets
Exchanges, custody providers, compliance platforms, tokenization infrastructure firms, and profitable middleware projects could become acquisition candidates. For token investors, that may mean focusing on projects with real cash flows, strong governance and regulatory alignment.
2. Follow stablecoin and RWA growth, not just price charts
The real story may be which chains, protocols and service providers capture stablecoin and tokenized-asset flows. Networks that become hubs for transaction settlement, institutional onboarding and compliance-friendly DeFi stand to benefit disproportionately.
3. Treat security as a primary risk factor
A multi-billion dollar hack could cause sharp drawdowns even in fundamentally strong assets. Diversification across custody providers, careful use of smart contracts, and a strong focus on audited, battle-tested protocols become increasingly important.
4. Track derivatives data as a macro signal
Open interest, basis spreads, and options positioning on regulated venues can provide early clues about institutional sentiment. A surge in regulated derivatives volume could precede sustained moves in spot markets.
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Implications For Builders And Founders
For entrepreneurs and teams operating in crypto, Perkins’ forecast suggests a pivot in strategy:
– Design for acquisition or long-term regulatory survival – Either build to be a strategic acquisition target for banks, exchanges or infrastructure players, or commit to the complex, expensive path of becoming a fully licensed, compliance-first operator.
– Embrace multi-jurisdictional thinking – With flows moving from Asia to the US and beyond, regulatory arbitrage will give way to sophisticated jurisdictional planning and structured corporate footprints.
– Integrate NFTs and tokenization quietly – Focus less on marketing “NFT drops” and more on embedding tokenized ownership, identity and access into products in a way that feels seamless to end users.
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Where Perkins Could Be Wrong
No forecast is guaranteed. Several scenarios could derail or delay parts of Perkins’ vision:
– A deeper-than-expected global recession could reduce M&A appetite and slow institutional adoption.
– A severe regulatory crackdown in a major jurisdiction could chill innovation or push activity further offshore.
– Technological failures or prolonged network issues on major chains could dampen confidence in tokenization and on-chain settlement.
– A lack of political will could slow the rollout of clear derivatives and stablecoin frameworks, keeping volumes concentrated in less-regulated venues.
Still, his predictions are less about precise numbers and more about direction: towards regulation, institutionalization, and integration with the broader financial system.
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The Bottom Line For 2026
Perkins’ 2026 outlook reframes the next crypto cycle not as a search for the next narrative, but as a test of whether digital assets can finally mature into a durable part of global finance.
– M&A summer instead of DeFi or meme summer.
– Stablecoins as the settlement layer of the tokenized world.
– A painful hack forcing a new level of policy seriousness.
– Regulated derivatives turning crypto into a standard part of institutional portfolios.
– Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching fresh peaks amid all this structural change.
– NFTs evolving from speculation to infrastructure.
If that vision plays out, 2026 may be remembered less for a single trend and more as the year crypto stopped acting like a niche experiment – and started behaving like an industry.