Store-of-value demand and a long-awaited regulatory framework in the United States could be the twin engines behind the next major crypto bull market, which Grayscale expects to gather momentum heading into 2026. In their view, investors are being pushed away from traditional assets by mounting macroeconomic risks while clearer rules open the door for large institutions and corporations to enter digital assets at scale.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, explained in an interview that the strongest underlying force remains the global macro backdrop. Government debt levels are surging, fiscal deficits show little sign of narrowing, and anxiety about the erosion of fiat currency purchasing power is rising. Against that environment, a growing share of investors is actively searching for assets that can act as an alternative store of value, beyond conventional stocks and bonds.
According to Pandl, this is especially true for Bitcoin, which still dominates the crypto market by capitalization. He emphasized that while there are many developments in the digital asset ecosystem, Bitcoin’s core investment case is anchored in its role as a hedge against debt-fueled monetary expansion and the potential debasement of government-issued currencies. As concerns about long-term inflation and unsustainable debt trajectories intensify, so does the appeal of a verifiably scarce, non-sovereign asset.
These macroeconomic imbalances are unlikely to resolve quickly, Pandl noted. Structural deficits, political resistance to austerity, and long-term spending commitments suggest that high levels of borrowing will persist. That, in turn, means the portfolio shift toward alternative stores of value is unlikely to be a short-lived trend. Grayscale believes this dynamic could support sustained inflows into digital assets well into 2026 and potentially beyond.
Alongside macro pressures, regulation is emerging as the second core pillar of the anticipated 2026 bull cycle. Grayscale expects meaningful, bipartisan progress on comprehensive US crypto market structure legislation in early 2026, after previous delays linked to political standoffs and a government shutdown. While lawmakers were unable to finalize a framework in 2025, momentum has returned, with both major parties showing renewed willingness to define how digital assets should be treated under federal law.
Pandl argued that the regulatory environment for crypto businesses in the United States has advanced significantly in recent years, but that the sector is still far from a fully mature framework. Key questions remain around token classification, disclosure standards, custody rules, and how various regulators will share oversight. The expectation is that a clearer statutory regime will finally give businesses, investors, and developers the confidence to build long-term plans in the US market without the same level of legal uncertainty.
A crucial consequence of regulatory clarity, in Grayscale’s view, would be the normalization of token issuance as a mainstream corporate finance tool. Pandl suggested that once rules are firmly established, startups, established private firms, and even large blue-chip corporations could begin issuing tokens alongside stocks and bonds within their capital structures. Over time, token-based instruments might become a standard option for raising capital, incentivizing user communities, or structuring revenue-sharing mechanisms.
If that happens, the line between “crypto projects” and “traditional companies” will blur. Tokens could represent equity, debt, revenue claims, or access rights, all governed by transparent code and settled on blockchains. For investors, this may unlock new ways to gain exposure to cash flows and growth, potentially increasing overall demand for on-chain assets and infrastructure.
The thesis around institutional adoption is not limited to asset managers and public companies. Echoing some of Grayscale’s optimism, Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at digital asset investment firm Dragonfly, has argued that 2026 could be the year a major technology giant fully embraces crypto for its core consumer products. He expects at least one leading Big Tech firm to integrate a native crypto wallet into its ecosystem, potentially onboarding hundreds of millions—if not billions—of users to digital assets almost overnight.
Companies often mentioned in this context include large platform providers with vast user bases in search, social media, smartphones, or cloud services. Whether such a firm chooses to build a wallet from scratch or acquire an existing provider, the outcome would be similar: crypto would move from a niche investment category into a default feature of mainstream digital life. That shift could fundamentally change user expectations around payments, savings, and digital identity.
Qureshi also foresees a growing wave of experimentation by Fortune 100 companies in the banking and fintech sectors. Many of these firms are expected to construct their own blockchains or distributed ledger networks. In most cases, these systems are likely to be private or permissioned, designed to comply with strict regulatory requirements around data, identity, and capital markets. However, they are also expected to remain interoperable with public blockchains, using modern infrastructure stacks and cross-chain communication tools.
Several major financial institutions have already taken early steps in this direction, building internal blockchain platforms for tasks such as interbank settlements, collateral management, trade finance, and tokenized deposits. Thus far, many of these projects remain limited in scope or confined to pilots. But as technical standards mature and legal uncertainties recede, large-scale deployment of such systems could accelerate, adding depth and liquidity to the broader digital asset ecosystem.
For individual investors trying to understand what a 2026 bull market might look like, these trends point to a very different environment from previous cycles. Earlier booms were often driven primarily by speculative enthusiasm, retail FOMO, or narratives around specific sectors such as ICOs, DeFi, or NFTs. The next cycle, if it plays out as Grayscale and others expect, could be anchored more firmly in structural demand: macro-driven store-of-value strategies, corporate tokenization, and global tech distribution.
This does not mean volatility will disappear. Crypto markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to interest rates, regulatory announcements, and technological setbacks. Nevertheless, if the core demand is increasingly tied to multi-year macro themes and institutional use cases, price swings could occur around a rising long-term floor rather than purely speculative peaks and troughs.
Another important element for 2026 is Ethereum and broader smart contract infrastructure. Parallel to the Bitcoin store-of-value narrative, Ethereum and other programmable blockchains are positioning themselves as the settlement and execution layers for a tokenized economy. With advances in zero-knowledge (ZK) technology and modular blockchain architectures, some analysts argue that 2026 could mark an inflection point where these networks begin scaling user activity and transaction throughput at an exponential rate.
If that vision materializes, it would support far more complex financial products, on-chain identity solutions, tokenized real-world assets, and high-frequency applications like gaming or micro-payments. This would further reinforce the case for both public and private actors to build on open blockchain standards rather than closed, proprietary ledgers.
From a strategic perspective, many portfolio managers are already reassessing traditional allocations that rely heavily on government bonds as the “safe” anchor. With yields still influenced by central bank policy and long-term inflation uncertainty, some are examining whether a small, disciplined allocation to digital assets could serve as a hedge or diversifier. In an environment where debt burdens and monetary interventions remain elevated, crypto’s asymmetric upside is increasingly part of institutional risk discussions.
Regulation, however, remains the crucial swing factor. Clear, consistent rules could unlock massive pools of capital from pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds that are currently constrained by compliance requirements. Without such clarity, these investors are likely to remain cautious, leaving much of the market in the hands of more risk-tolerant players. This is why progress on a US market structure bill and related global frameworks is being watched so closely by the industry.
Finally, it is worth noting that both bullish and cautious scenarios can coexist for 2026. On the one hand, the ingredients for a powerful leg higher in crypto markets are visible: macro tailwinds, institutional infrastructure, Big Tech distribution, and a maturing regulatory environment. On the other, any delay in legislation, a sharp macro shock, or a major security incident could disrupt timelines and dampen sentiment.
For now, the consensus emerging among many analysts is that digital assets are moving from the speculative fringe toward an established, if volatile, corner of global finance. If Grayscale’s forecast proves accurate, the next bull market will be less about early adopters chasing novelty and more about global capital seeking resilient stores of value and programmable financial rails in an uncertain economic era.