Why Metaplanet stock might be heading for a 1,500% ‘explosive run’ by 2027
Metaplanet has staged a sharp recovery in December, dramatically outpacing both Bitcoin itself and the high-profile Bitcoin proxy stock, MicroStrategy (ticker: MSTR). While BTC has barely managed a move of less than 1% over the month and MSTR has actually dropped about 12%, Metaplanet’s various listings have bounced between 6% and 28%, signalling a clear resurgence of bullish sentiment around the Japan-based Bitcoin treasury firm.
This renewed optimism is not just a short-term trading story. Bitcoin treasury analyst Hermes Lux argues that Metaplanet’s U.S.-traded MPJPY stock could rise as much as 1,500% by the end of 2027, with a potential 402% gain already on the table for 2026. His projection is built on a set of explicit assumptions: that Bitcoin appreciates roughly 40% per year, that Metaplanet grows its BTC stash to 100,000 BTC in 2026, and then scales that to around 210,000 BTC by 2027. Within that framework, Lux views the ambitious price targets as feasible rather than purely speculative.
Three Metaplanet stocks – one emerging narrative
Investors currently have three different ways to gain equity exposure to Metaplanet:
– MPJPY – a newer, BTC-backed listing available on U.S. over-the-counter markets.
– MTPLF – the earlier, unbacked Metaplanet share class accessible to U.S. investors.
– 3350 – the primary listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
All three have benefited from December’s rebound. While the magnitudes differ, each has recovered solidly in the 6%–28% range, in stark contrast to the lethargic performance of BTC and the drop in Strategy’s MSTR over the same period. The divergence suggests that investors are starting to price in Metaplanet’s updated capital plans and its role as a leveraged play on Bitcoin’s next potential bull cycle.
Shareholders greenlight aggressive capital strategy
The latest leg of Metaplanet’s rally followed shareholder approval of a broad capital-raising framework. The company obtained authorization not only to issue more shares, including preferred stock, but also to create reserves aimed at covering dividends on these preferred shares. In other words, the firm has been given political and legal room to both raise fresh money and reward certain classes of investors, all while keeping its eye firmly on Bitcoin accumulation.
Similar to Strategy’s approach, Metaplanet is using a mix of equity issuance and credit facilities to fund its Bitcoin purchases. The twist lies in management’s willingness to launch forceful share buyback programs later on—without unloading any of its BTC reserves. That structure effectively turns Metaplanet into a kind of leveraged Bitcoin ETF with active capital management: issue shares and borrow to buy BTC on the way up, then use future cash flows and financial engineering to repurchase those shares, thereby amplifying the BTC exposure per remaining share.
mNAV recovery signals improving sentiment
The market’s perception of Metaplanet can be tracked via its mNAV, a metric designed to capture how the firm’s crypto holdings compare to its overall enterprise value. After sliding to a low of 0.93x during the risk-off environment of Q4 2025, Metaplanet’s mNAV has bounced to around 1.25x following the company’s recent updates.
This rebound is important. A rising mNAV implies that the market is increasingly willing to value the company at or above the theoretical worth of its BTC treasury relative to its total valuation. Analyst Zyn believes this is just the beginning. He sees potential for mNAV to climb to about 1.4x under more constructive conditions and even stretch into the 3–4x range during what he calls Bitcoin’s next “explosive run.” In times of market euphoria, he is “hopeful” that mNAV multiples could expand further, possibly to 3–5x—a scenario that would be extraordinarily bullish for Metaplanet shareholders.
Multiple analysts see powerful catalysts into 2026
Hermes Lux is not alone in his optimistic view. Analyst Adam Livingston also regards Metaplanet’s newly approved financial maneuvers as “incredible catalysts” for the stock as the market heads into 2026. In his view, the combination of massive planned BTC accumulation, flexible capital structures, and the potential for aggressive buybacks creates a flywheel effect: more BTC drives higher perceived value, which supports higher share prices, which in turn makes further financing easier.
Beyond individual analysts, institutional appetite is emerging as another supportive factor. Even Norway has reportedly taken a bullish stance on Metaplanet, underscoring how the company has started to attract attention beyond its domestic market. Metaplanet has already secured around 400 million dollars in funding, a war chest that could be deployed toward large-scale Bitcoin purchases in 2026 if management follows through on current plans.
From 30,000 BTC to 210,000 BTC – an aggressive accumulation roadmap
Metaplanet temporarily paused new Bitcoin acquisitions in late 2025 after surpassing its then-target of 30,000 BTC. At present, the firm holds roughly 30,823 BTC on its balance sheet. The pause, however, was tactical rather than strategic. The company has made clear that it intends to add about 70,000 BTC in 2026 alone, pushing its holdings toward the 100,000 BTC mark.
The roadmap does not end there. Lux’s long-term 2027 projection is built on the assumption that Metaplanet nearly doubles this figure again, taking its stash to around 210,000 BTC. If Bitcoin’s price indeed rises at a 40% annualized pace, such a position would transform Metaplanet into one of the largest corporate holders of BTC globally and turn the stock into an extremely high-beta vehicle for cryptocurrency exposure. In that scenario, a 1,500% price move over several years becomes less far-fetched, especially if mNAV compresses and then expands dramatically with the cycle.
Why Metaplanet has outperformed BTC and MSTR in December
The recent performance gap between Metaplanet, BTC, and MSTR is more than noise. Several factors help explain why Metaplanet has outpaced both the underlying asset and its best-known proxy:
1. Fresh catalysts vs. stale narrative
While Bitcoin has traded sideways and MSTR has been consolidating after its earlier parabolic run, Metaplanet delivered new, concrete updates—shareholder approval of capital plans, public targets for BTC accumulation, and clearer buyback intentions. Markets tend to reward new information, especially when it reshapes growth expectations.
2. Undervalued starting point
With mNAV previously below 1x, Metaplanet was arguably trading at a discount to the value of its BTC holdings. As sentiment improved, this discount began to close, creating more upside than in assets already priced richly.
3. Leverage to future accumulation
Investors are not just pricing the current 30,823 BTC; they are also discounting the potential jump to 100,000 and then 210,000 BTC. That forward-looking accumulation plan gives Metaplanet a multi-year growth story tied directly to Bitcoin’s trajectory.
The bullish case: how a 1,500% run could materialize
Putting the numbers together, the bullish thesis rests on a few pillars:
– Bitcoin appreciation of ~40% per year into 2027, driving significant mark-to-market gains on Metaplanet’s treasury.
– Scale-up of BTC holdings from 30,823 BTC to 100,000 BTC in 2026 and 210,000 BTC in 2027, dramatically increasing the absolute value of the treasury.
– mNAV expansion from the current 1.25x toward 3–5x in periods of market euphoria, causing Metaplanet’s enterprise value to trade at a rich premium to its underlying BTC.
– Capital market flexibility, where share issuance, preferred stock, credit lines, and subsequent buybacks magnify per-share exposure to the BTC pile over time.
If these factors align, the path to a 402% upside in 2026 and roughly 1,500% by 2027 becomes a function of leverage—both financial and psychological—as the market chases BTC-proxy equities during a speculative cycle.
Key risks that could derail the thesis
The upside narrative is compelling, but it is also highly conditional. Several risks could significantly limit or even reverse Metaplanet’s potential gains:
– Bitcoin underperformance: If BTC fails to deliver 40% annual growth, or enters a prolonged bear market, Metaplanet’s entire treasury-driven strategy becomes a liability rather than an asset.
– Dilution from capital raises: The same share issuance that fuels BTC purchases also dilutes existing shareholders. If buybacks fail to materialize or occur at unfavourable prices, long-term holders might not see the expected benefit.
– Regulatory and macro headwinds: Changes in Japan’s regulatory stance on digital assets, shifts in global interest rates, or tightening credit conditions could make it harder or more expensive for Metaplanet to fund its strategy.
– Execution risk: Reaching 210,000 BTC requires precise timing, financial discipline, and continued access to markets. Missteps in any of these areas could reduce returns or trigger sharp drawdowns in the stock.
How Metaplanet fits into a broader Bitcoin-equity strategy
For investors seeking equity-based Bitcoin exposure, Metaplanet sits in an emerging category of “BTC treasury stocks,” alongside names like Strategy. These companies effectively function as leveraged Bitcoin vehicles: their share prices typically move more aggressively than BTC itself, both on the upside and downside.
Metaplanet differentiates itself through its Japanese domicile, multiclass listing structure (MPJPY, MTPLF, 3350), and publicly stated ambitions to scale BTC holdings at a rapid pace. For a portfolio, such a stock might be considered as a satellite position—high risk, high reward—rather than a conservative core holding. Its performance is likely to be tightly coupled with crypto market cycles, and volatility should be expected.
What to watch next
Over the coming quarters, several milestones will help investors gauge whether the 1,500% scenario is on track or drifting out of reach:
– Actual BTC accumulation versus the 70,000 BTC 2026 target.
– Changes in mNAV and any signs of multiple expansion toward 1.4x and beyond.
– Details and timing of any announced share buyback programs.
– Further capital-raising moves and their impact on dilution and balance-sheet strength.
– Bitcoin’s own price trend and volatility profile as halving cycles and macro factors unfold.
If Metaplanet continues to hit its BTC accumulation goals, maintains market access, and benefits from a strong Bitcoin cycle, the stock could remain one of the most aggressively leveraged plays on digital gold through 2027.
Final thoughts
Metaplanet has transitioned from a relatively obscure Bitcoin treasury player to a high-conviction bet for analysts who believe in an extended BTC bull market. Its December outperformance versus both Bitcoin and MSTR, the recovery in mNAV, and the ambitious treasury scaling plan have combined to create a powerful bullish narrative.
However, that narrative is tightly bound to a series of optimistic assumptions about Bitcoin’s path, market sentiment, and flawless corporate execution. The potential for a 402% gain by 2026 and a 1,500% “explosive run” by 2027 exists on paper—but so does the risk of severe losses if the broader thesis unravels.
Any decision to buy, hold, or sell Metaplanet stock should therefore be preceded by careful, independent research and a clear understanding of one’s own risk tolerance. Equity exposure to Bitcoin via a leveraged treasury firm can amplify returns, but it can just as easily magnify drawdowns in a downturn.