Bitcoin slides toward $76K as traders warn bull cycle may be over and $50K is back on the table
Bitcoin’s powerful multi-year uptrend is showing serious signs of fatigue, according to several closely followed traders who now see the leading cryptocurrency in the middle of a major corrective phase rather than the next leg of a bull run.
A prominent analyst known as Roman argues that the bull market is effectively “over” for now, pointing to a cluster of bearish signals on higher timeframes. In his latest breakdown shared on X, he projects that Bitcoin could first fall toward the 76,000 dollar region and, in a deeper scenario, ultimately revisit the 50,000 dollar area in the coming months.
Bear flag on the daily chart targets 76K
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has been moving inside an upward‑sloping channel after printing local lows just above 80,000 dollars. While that might look like constructive price action at first glance, Roman characterizes this structure as a textbook bear flag: a weak, grinding recovery within a larger downtrend that often resolves with a fresh leg lower.
“Let the drop to 76k begin. Bear divs plus bearish price action are proving their worth,” he commented, sharing a chart that highlighted price, volume, the relative strength index (RSI), and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicators all turning against the bulls.
According to this view, the current bounce is not the start of a new rally, but rather a temporary relief phase before sellers regain full control. A clean breakdown from the channel would validate the bear flag pattern and open the door to the 76,000 dollar target that Roman is watching.
Multiple bearish divergences and fading momentum
Roman’s bearish stance is driven not just by the chart pattern itself, but by a wider set of divergences he sees building across key indicators. On higher timeframes, the RSI has been making lower highs while price pushed to new peaks earlier in the year – a classic bearish divergence suggesting that underlying momentum has been eroding even as price tried to climb.
MACD readings and volume also point to exhaustion rather than renewed strength. Each successive move higher has been supported by thinner participation, while selling waves have arrived with greater conviction. To Roman, this imbalance is consistent with a market that has already completed its major bullish phase and is transitioning into a longer corrective period.
“Bull run is over” – macro tailwinds fail to lift BTC
Roman goes further, arguing that the macro environment is no longer enough to rescue Bitcoin’s price. Even as global equities respond positively to easing financial conditions and expectations of lower US interest rates, Bitcoin has failed to mirror that optimism.
He notes that from the macro bottom near 15,600 dollars during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin rallied roughly 750 percent. After such a dramatic advance, the asset may simply be in a phase where profit‑taking and re‑pricing outweigh any supportive macro narrative. In his view, traders who still expect rate cuts or looser monetary policy to ignite another explosive leg higher in the near term are likely to be disappointed.
Echoes of 2022: comparisons to the previous cycle
The emerging bear flag has caught the attention of other analysts as well. Trader Ted Pillows highlighted what he described as an “uncanny” similarity between the current cycle and the 2022 structure that preceded a major breakdown.
He outlined a possible scenario in which Bitcoin could still deliver one last dramatic push higher, potentially toward the 100,000 dollar region, before a sharp reversal takes price back below 70,000 dollars. This would mirror earlier cycles where an explosive “blow‑off” top was quickly followed by a brutal correction.
The implication is that even if a new all‑time high or a spike into six‑figure territory materializes, it may be short‑lived and ultimately part of a topping pattern rather than the start of fresh sustainable upside.
Relief for bulls: support band offers a temporary safety net
Not all analysts are fully aligned with the “bull market is dead” narrative. In the shorter term, some see reasons to believe that Bitcoin could stabilize or even mount a more meaningful bounce before any deeper downside plays out.
Trader Luca points to Bitcoin’s so‑called bull market support band on the daily chart as a crucial line in the sand. This band is formed from the 21‑period simple moving average (SMA) and the 20‑period exponential moving average (EMA). During strong uptrends, this zone often acts as dynamic support during corrections, catching price before a new wave of buying emerges.
Luca notes that Bitcoin has recently pushed back above this band and is currently attempting its fourth consecutive daily close above it. If the market can maintain that position and convert the band into a solid floor, he believes the medium‑term outlook could flip back to decisively bullish and set the stage for a renewed attempt toward the highs.
Fourth daily close test: why it matters
Remaining above the bull market support band for several sessions in a row is critical from a technical perspective. Previous cycles have shown that when Bitcoin holds this area, corrective phases tend to resolve with the trend resuming to the upside. Conversely, a breakdown and sustained trading below the band often signal that a deeper bear market or extended consolidation is underway.
The current attempt to secure a fourth daily close above the band would mark the longest stretch of stability in this zone since early October. For bulls, that offers a glimmer of hope that the recent selling pressure might be losing steam, at least temporarily. For bears, any failure to hold this band would be confirmation that their broader downside targets remain in play.
What a slide to 76K and 50K could mean for the market
A move down to 76,000 dollars, while painful for late buyers, would still leave Bitcoin well above its previous cycle highs and far above the 2022 bottom. Such a correction could be interpreted as a healthy reset after an overheated run, flushing out leveraged positions and restoring more sustainable valuations.
However, Roman’s more extreme 50,000 dollar target would carry much heavier psychological and structural implications. A drop to that level would represent a deep retracement of the entire advance from the 2022 lows, likely shaking investor confidence, triggering forced liquidations, and challenging the narrative of an uninterrupted long‑term bull trend.
For long‑term participants, such a decline could also be viewed as a potential opportunity, historically aligned with periods when long‑horizon holders accumulated aggressively. But it would almost certainly require months of sideways trading and rebuilding of trust before any new uptrend could firmly establish itself.
How traders are adapting: scenarios and risk management
In this uncertain environment, many market participants are focusing less on predicting a single outcome and more on preparing for multiple scenarios:
– If the bear flag breaks down decisively with rising volume, short‑term traders may look for continuation toward the 76,000 dollar area, using rallies as opportunities to reduce risk or hedge.
– If the bull market support band continues to hold and price begins to make higher highs and higher lows above it, momentum traders may cautiously re‑enter long positions, targeting a retest of the previous peaks.
– If volatility compresses and Bitcoin continues to chop sideways inside the channel without conviction, range‑trading strategies may dominate, with tighter risk controls and shorter time horizons.
Across all approaches, position sizing, stop‑loss placement, and an awareness of leverage risk are taking priority, given the possibility of sharp moves in either direction.
Macro backdrop: why crypto is decoupling from stocks
The recent divergence between surging stock indices and a more lethargic Bitcoin has sparked debate about how closely crypto still tracks traditional risk assets. While earlier phases of this cycle saw strong correlations, the current stalling of BTC despite more supportive macro signals suggests that internal market dynamics are now playing a larger role.
Several factors may be contributing: profit‑taking by large holders after a multi‑hundred‑percent run, rotation into other digital assets, regulatory overhang in key jurisdictions, and simple cycle fatigue as new retail inflows slow. This decoupling underscores that even in a world of lower rates and abundant liquidity, crypto can follow its own path driven by sentiment and positioning rather than macro alone.
What long‑term investors should watch next
For investors with a multi‑year horizon, the immediate question is not so much whether Bitcoin ticks 76,000 or 100,000 dollars next, but whether the structural uptrend that began after the 2022 lows remains intact.
Key signals to monitor include:
– Whether higher‑timeframe support zones (such as major weekly moving averages) continue to hold.
– The behavior of long‑term holders – are they distributing heavily, or maintaining and adding to positions?
– Funding rates and derivatives positioning, which can reveal extremes in leverage that often precede sharp reversals.
– The evolution of macro conditions, particularly if a deeper global slowdown or renewed tightening in financial markets were to appear.
If the market demonstrates an ability to absorb selling near major support levels and rebuild momentum gradually, the broader bull narrative may survive even a sizeable correction. If, however, support repeatedly fails and long‑term participants start to capitulate, the probability of a more protracted bear phase grows.
A market at a crossroads
Bitcoin currently sits at a crucial juncture. Bears see a clear technical roadmap toward 76,000 and possibly 50,000 dollars, backed by weakening momentum and pattern structures that have historically resolved lower. Bulls, meanwhile, are clinging to the resilience of the bull market support band and the possibility that the current pullback is just another shakeout within a longer‑lasting uptrend.
Until one of these narratives decisively prevails on the chart, volatility and mixed signals are likely to persist. Traders and investors alike are navigating an environment where both substantial upside squeezes and sharp downside breaks remain on the table.
Nothing in this analysis should be taken as financial or investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile and speculative, and any decision to buy, sell, or hold them should be based on independent research, a clear understanding of the risks involved, and consideration of one’s own financial situation and risk tolerance.