Bitcoin price outlook: Will a bear trap ignite BTC’s run to $100,000?
The final stretch of November is starting to look less like a crash and more like a reset button for Bitcoin. After three consecutive red weekly candles that erased roughly $970 billion from the overall crypto market value, the tide has turned. This week alone, total market capitalization has climbed more than 5%, adding around $160 billion and setting up what could become the first green weekly close of the month.
Bitcoin is at the center of this shift. It has captured roughly two‑thirds of the fresh inflows, while interest in altcoins has cooled significantly, with alt‑season indicators retreating to levels last seen in mid‑summer. Capital is rotating into the relative safety and liquidity of BTC, and that rotation is a strong signal for a renewed bullish bias heading into December.
However, a rising price is not the same thing as a confirmed bull market. The path to a new all‑time high still runs directly through several thick walls of supply overhead.
The supply clusters that matter
On-chain data highlights four key price bands where large amounts of “old” Bitcoin are held at an unrealized loss or tiny profit. These zones are essentially break-even regions for long‑term holders. When price revisits these levels, many of those holders are historically tempted to sell, creating resistance.
These supply clusters act like speed bumps on the way to higher prices. Each time BTC enters one of them, sellers have an incentive to unload, especially those who have endured months of volatility just to get back to even. For Bitcoin to convincingly move toward six figures, it must chew through this supply step by step, transforming former bagholders into either profit‑takers or renewed long‑term believers.
The positive twist today is that key capitulation metrics are improving. Net realized profit and loss has turned positive again, meaning the market as a whole is no longer offloading coins at a loss. Realized losses are shrinking, and profitable spending is picking up – a pattern usually seen when weak hands have already been shaken out and stronger hands are absorbing the remaining supply.
Sentiment: from panic to cautious optimism
Macro sentiment has cooled from outright panic. A popular composite gauge of fear and greed in the crypto market has climbed by about eight points over the week, moving from “extreme fear” into a more cautious, moderate fear zone. That may not sound euphoric, but from a contrarian standpoint it is constructive: rallies that begin under a cloud of skepticism often travel farther than those launched from unbridled greed.
This shift also suggests that investors are slowly exiting “sell at any cost” mode. While global macro factors – interest rate expectations, liquidity conditions, regulatory headlines – still loom large, the market appears to be adjusting rather than capitulating. If the macro environment stays broadly stable, the FOMO that vanished during the recent drawdown could return surprisingly quickly.
On‑chain health: risk is cooling, accumulation is heating up
Multiple on‑chain indicators that track spending behavior and network profitability are starting to rebound. Metrics that previously signaled elevated risk during the drawdown are easing, painting a picture of a healthier trading environment.
Behind the scenes, this looks like an active accumulation phase. Coins are gradually moving from short‑term, speculative hands back to entities with a longer average holding period. Historically, these accumulation phases have often preceded strong upward moves, especially when they coincide with reduced selling pressure from long‑term holders.
In other words, Bitcoin appears to be in the middle of a “micro and macro reset” – washed‑out leverage, calmer emotions, and a network structure increasingly dominated by patient buyers rather than fast‑flippers.
How the bear trap was set
During the worst of the recent decline, Bitcoin shifted into what many traders call a “risk‑off” mode. Prices were capped, volatility compressed, and sentiment cratered. That environment is fertile ground for short sellers: it encourages traders to bet on further downside and stack leveraged positions against BTC.
As the price moved sideways to slightly lower, a large cluster of shorts built up above and around key resistance zones. These positions were profitable as long as BTC stayed stuck or fell – but they became extremely vulnerable to any sharp move higher.
When momentum flipped back toward “risk‑on,” that’s exactly what happened. A burst of upside price action forced many short sellers to close their positions in a hurry, buying BTC back at market prices and pushing the price even higher. Over the week, liquidations across the derivatives market exceeded a billion dollars, with roughly 60% of that coming from short positions – the first week of the month in which short liquidations clearly outweighed long wipeouts after three straight weeks of heavy liquidations on the long side.
This dynamic is the textbook definition of a bear trap: the market lures in aggressive bears with a convincing downtrend, then rips higher, forcing them to buy back and fuel the rally they were betting against.
Why $100,000 is the obvious psychological magnet
In any discussion of Bitcoin’s future, the six‑figure mark is inevitable. A price of $100,000 is not just a round number; it is a psychological milestone for both retail and institutional participants. It represents a doubling from the previous cycle’s all‑time high region and would likely trigger a new wave of media attention and fresh capital.
From a structural standpoint, several trends support the argument that BTC could ultimately gravitate toward that zone:
– Supply on exchanges has generally been trending lower over the longer term, restricting the immediately available float.
– Long‑term holders still control a large portion of the supply and have shown little interest in panic‑selling during the latest volatility.
– Realized profit and loss dynamics suggest the worst of the forced selling may be behind the market, easing downward pressure.
If the current accumulation continues and each major resistance cluster is gradually broken, the path toward six figures becomes more plausible – especially if external catalysts, such as favorable regulation, institutional demand, or a macro liquidity tailwind, align at the same time.
Why a move to six figures might hurt the bears again
If Bitcoin does approach the $100,000 region, there is a high probability that the journey will not be smooth. Each major breakout tends to be accompanied by waves of short positioning from skeptics convinced that BTC is “overbought” or “topping out.” If the market structure remains similar to today, these short positions could again become fuel rather than resistance.
A classic pattern in strong bull markets is a series of mini bear traps:
– Price consolidates beneath a resistance level.
– Traders pile into shorts, expecting a breakdown.
– BTC squeezes higher, liquidates the shorts, and converts resistance into support.
If this cycle repeats at increasingly higher price bands, bears can find themselves repeatedly on the wrong side of the trade, providing exit liquidity for early bulls and acceleration for late‑stage rallies. A final leg toward $100,000 could easily be accompanied by intense volatility, massive liquidations on both sides, and emotional decision‑making from retail traders.
Key risks that could derail the $100K narrative
Despite the increasingly bullish setup, there are clear scenarios in which Bitcoin fails to reach $100,000 in the near term:
1. Macro shock: A renewed surge in inflation, unexpected rate hikes, or a liquidity crunch could push investors back into defensive assets, draining risk capital from crypto.
2. Regulatory setbacks: Harsh or unexpected regulatory actions in major markets could undermine confidence and delay institutional participation.
3. Exhausted buyers at resistance: If long‑term holders start taking heavy profits at the identified supply clusters and demand is not strong enough to absorb them, BTC could stall well below six figures.
4. Over‑leveraged derivatives market: If excessive leverage builds up again on the long side, a relatively small correction could trigger a cascade of liquidations, sending price sharply lower and resetting the cycle once more.
Any of these headwinds could transform the current recovery into a prolonged sideways range or even another leg down, resetting bullish expectations.
How traders and investors might approach this phase
Given the current setup, many market participants will be weighing two competing realities: improving on‑chain and sentiment data on the one hand, and non‑trivial macro and structural risks on the other. A few general strategic ideas often discussed in such environments include:
– Focusing on spot over high leverage: With volatility high and bear traps likely, unleveraged or lightly leveraged exposure can help reduce the risk of forced liquidations.
– Watching the supply clusters: Tracking how price behaves when it revisits heavy historical holding zones can offer early clues as to whether resistance is being absorbed or reinforced.
– Monitoring sentiment extremes: Both excessive fear and extreme greed can precede sharp reversals. A balanced but skeptical mood, like today’s, often leaves room for upside.
– Staggered decision‑making: Instead of all‑in, all‑out moves, scaling into or out of positions across different price levels can smooth the impact of volatility.
These are not guarantees of success, but ways to navigate a market that is simultaneously resetting and preparing for potential expansion.
The bottom line: a fragile but promising setup
Bitcoin’s latest rebound is being powered by a classic cocktail: washed‑out longs, a growing cluster of trapped shorts, improving on‑chain metrics, and a slow but noticeable change in sentiment from panic to cautious optimism. This environment is fertile ground for powerful upside moves – including, eventually, a serious attempt at the six‑figure region.
Whether BTC actually reaches $100,000 in this cycle will depend on more than just technicals. Macro conditions, regulatory developments, and the behavior of long‑term holders at key supply zones will all play decisive roles. But one thing is clear: if Bitcoin does make a sustained run toward six figures, it is likely to do so on the backs of yet another wave of defeated bears, caught once again in a carefully laid trap.
Disclaimer: This text is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Trading, buying, or selling cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, and each person should conduct their own research and evaluate their risk tolerance before making any financial decisions.