Despite a noticeable uptick in whale transactions and increased activity from short-term holders (STHs), XRP continues to trade without significant price movement. This puzzling behavior has left investors and analysts questioning what’s holding the asset back, especially as on-chain metrics show signs of accumulation and capital rotation.
In the past few days, XRP has logged a remarkable 716 whale transfers exceeding $1 million each — the highest level of such activity in over four months. Typically, such a spike in large-scale transactions signals heightened investor interest and capital inflows. Simultaneously, blockchain data indicates that STHs are steadily increasing their holdings, particularly those who have held XRP for periods ranging from one week to three months. This suggests fresh capital is flowing into XRP, not exiting it through long-term holder distribution.
Glassnode’s HODL Waves chart further supports this narrative. The growing share of XRP held by the 1-week to 3-month cohort reflects a clear shift toward short-term speculation and potential positioning for a rebound. These indicators often precede a price rally — yet, XRP’s price remains subdued.
Interestingly, while the Spot market and on-chain metrics are showing signs of activity, derivatives markets remain largely quiet. Aggregated Open Interest (OI) has hovered around $1.30 billion, showing minimal deviation over the past week. Funding rates, a measure of sentiment in the perpetual futures market, remain just slightly positive at approximately 0.0057. This stability implies that neither bullish nor bearish leverage is dominating the market, and that the current momentum is driven more by organic buying in the Spot market than speculative futures trading.
Despite this accumulation and activity under the surface, XRP’s price action remains sluggish. On the daily chart, the token continues to trade below all major exponential moving averages — the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs — signaling persistent bearish pressure. The price hovered around $2.24 during the latest trading sessions, failing to build on a short-lived rebound seen earlier. Daily trading volumes have also declined compared to the surge observed in early November, indicating fading enthusiasm among traders.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near 41, placing XRP in a neutral-to-bearish momentum zone. Unless the price can decisively reclaim the $2.36 to $2.50 resistance range — a cluster of important EMAs — the asset may continue moving sideways or even face further declines in the near term.
So why isn’t XRP responding more positively to these seemingly bullish signals?
One reason could be investor caution stemming from broader macroeconomic uncertainty or regulatory ambiguity surrounding Ripple’s ongoing legal challenges. Such external factors continue to weigh heavily on sentiment, causing traders to hesitate despite positive on-chain data.
Another factor may be the absence of strong retail participation. While whales and STHs are showing activity, retail investors — who often drive significant price moves — have not yet returned in large numbers. This lack of widespread demand could be muting the effect of institutional and short-term speculative buying.
Additionally, the current market structure suggests that XRP may be in a phase of accumulation. This is a period when smart money collects assets quietly before a larger upward move. It’s a phase often marked by low volatility and price stagnation, even as accumulation builds in the background.
A potential catalyst for price action could be a breakout of the broader crypto market. Should Bitcoin or Ethereum experience a strong rally, altcoins like XRP often follow with delayed but amplified moves. Until such a catalyst emerges, XRP may remain stuck in its current consolidation range.
Moreover, technical traders are likely watching closely for a shift in momentum indicators. A move above the 50-day EMA, accompanied by a rise in volume and RSI crossing above 50, could trigger renewed interest and potentially a breakout. But until these signals align, caution prevails.
In conclusion, XRP is currently caught in a tug-of-war between accumulating interest and technical resistance. While whale activity and short-term holder accumulation point to growing confidence, the lack of retail participation, quiet derivatives markets, and resistance at key technical levels are keeping prices subdued. Investors may need to wait for stronger confirmation — either through technical breakouts or macro developments — before a meaningful move to the upside can occur.
Looking ahead, several factors could serve as triggers for XRP’s next big move:
1. Regulatory clarity: Any definitive resolution to Ripple’s legal battles could significantly impact investor sentiment.
2. Broader market momentum: A bullish wave across the crypto sector could lift XRP along with other altcoins.
3. Adoption news: Partnerships or major integrations involving Ripple’s technology could boost confidence.
4. On-chain metrics convergence: A sustained rise in whale accumulation, retail inflows, and derivatives activity could align to signal a breakout.
5. Technical breakout: Reclaiming the $2.36–$2.50 range with volume could attract momentum traders and spark a rally.
Until then, XRP remains in a state of cautious optimism — a coin quietly being accumulated, waiting for the right moment to ignite.