Solana’s recent price performance has been discouraging for short-term investors, as the cryptocurrency fell to levels last seen in June. Despite this decline, key indicators suggest that the market may be gearing up for a potential rebound. Institutional interest remains resilient, and derivatives data is beginning to reflect a shift in sentiment.
Over the past few weeks, Solana-based Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have continued to attract inflows, even as the asset’s spot price dipped significantly. Notably, daily net ETF inflows surpassed $60 million on October 28 and again on November 3. As of the latest data, the total net assets under management in Solana ETFs hover around $541 million, signaling that investors are not pulling out en masse. This sustained interest from institutional players suggests a level of confidence in Solana’s long-term value, despite short-term price weakness.
The broader market downturn has not deterred large investors. Even though ETF inflows have slowed somewhat, they remain firmly in positive territory. This contrasts with the price action on Solana’s weekly chart, where the token has slipped below key technical levels. Specifically, SOL dipped under the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $176 and tested the 100-week EMA near $157. These levels were last visited in mid-2023. Selling pressure has been consistent, with volume increasing for two consecutive weeks, reinforcing a bearish market environment.
Technical indicators reflect this downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, indicating that the asset may be undervalued in the short term. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has extended its bearish crossover, with deepening red histogram bars suggesting that bearish momentum is still in play. For Solana to reestablish a more constructive trend, it would need to climb back into the mid-$150 range and hold that support.
Despite these technical headwinds, derivatives markets are offering a glimmer of hope. Aggregated Open Interest (OI) has remained stable, fluctuating narrowly between $2.94 billion and $2.95 billion. This suggests that leveraged positions are not being unwound in a panic, and traders are not fleeing the market. More significantly, funding rates, which had been consistently negative, have shifted back into positive territory — registering about 0.0084 at the time of writing. This shift implies that long positions are beginning to return, as traders regain confidence and become more willing to bet on an upward move.
The steadiness in open interest and the return of positive funding rates imply that market participants are beginning to reposition themselves for a potential recovery. This sentiment is reinforced by developments on the regulatory front. VanEck’s filing of an 8-A form with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Solana spot ETF is a strong signal that institutional-grade Solana investment vehicles could soon become more accessible. The launch of a spot ETF would likely increase demand significantly, potentially acting as a catalyst for a price recovery.
Another important factor to consider is the broader trend in crypto adoption and blockchain utility. Solana continues to be one of the most active Layer 1 platforms in terms of transaction volumes and decentralized application (dApp) deployment. Its high throughput and low transaction fees make it a preferred choice for developers building decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and non-fungible token (NFT) marketplaces. This persistent usage may bolster its value proposition, even during periods of price stagnation.
Furthermore, on-chain activity is showing signs of accumulation. Wallet addresses holding significant amounts of SOL have been steadily increasing, indicating that large holders — often referred to as “whales” — are taking advantage of lower prices to build their positions. This accumulation pattern often precedes a recovery, as it reflects growing confidence among experienced investors.
Sentiment analysis from social and analytical platforms also indicates a mild uptick in positive engagement around Solana. While not yet at euphoric levels, the increase in constructive discourse suggests that market participants are beginning to view the current price levels as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit.
In summary, while Solana’s price has experienced a notable decline, multiple indicators point to underlying strength. Institutional flows remain solid, derivatives data is stabilizing, and regulatory progress may provide further momentum. Coupled with signs of accumulation and ongoing network activity, these elements suggest that Solana could be poised for a reversal — provided it manages to reclaim key technical support zones.
Investors and traders should monitor how Solana interacts with the mid-$150 price level in the coming days. A successful reclaim and consolidation above this region could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase. Until then, cautious optimism may be the most prudent stance, as the market awaits stronger confirmation of a trend reversal.