XRP’s current price trajectory suggests that a major upward move may still be on the horizon, with technical indicators pointing toward the potential completion of a fifth wave — a concept central to Elliott Wave Theory. According to a recent analysis by EGRAG CRYPTO, XRP is in the final stages of its fourth wave consolidation, which historically has preceded explosive bullish trends. If this pattern holds, the next rally could drive XRP toward a long-anticipated target near $27.
EGRAG’s analysis uses a 5-day chart to depict XRP’s behavior in the context of an extended five-wave structure. The Elliott Wave Theory posits that markets move in repetitive wave patterns, typically five in an impulse phase. XRP appears to be wrapping up the fourth wave — typically a corrective phase — and preparing for the fifth, which is often the most bullish and sentiment-defying leg.
In past market cycles, notably in 2017 and 2021, XRP experienced similar corrections before surging to new highs. These historical parallels strengthen the case that the current consolidation is merely a pause before a major breakout. EGRAG emphasizes that the current structure mirrors these earlier setups, with XRP maintaining strong support above $2.20, a level that has acted as a floor during recent dips.
The technical outlook is further supported by Fibonacci extension levels, which provide potential price targets for the fifth wave. Key levels identified include $4.78, $5.52, $6.76, and $18.25 — all derived from classic Fibonacci ratios (1.272, 1.414, 1.618, and 2.618, respectively). The most ambitious target, however, sits at the 4.236 extension level, estimating a possible move as high as $27 if XRP fully capitalizes on the final wave.
EGRAG describes the upcoming fifth wave as one driven by disbelief — a market phase where skepticism dominates, and many traders wrongly bet against the rally. He points to a recent case where a trader lost $30 million shorting XRP during its early 2024 climb, reinforcing the idea that emotional decisions in markets can lead to significant losses, especially when historical patterns are ignored.
Currently, XRP is trading around $2.49, having bounced back from a recent low of $2.12. This 9% gain over 24 hours reflects renewed optimism in the market and suggests that investor confidence is gradually returning. This price action is occurring against the backdrop of a broader recovery in the crypto market, with total market capitalization increasing by approximately 4.4% over the same period.
Another promising sign comes from XRP’s interaction with its exponential moving averages (EMAs), particularly the cyan and pink bands used in EGRAG’s charting. These have consistently served as dynamic support in prior cycles, and XRP’s continued position above these levels supports the bullish thesis. Historically, breaks above these EMAs have led to multi-fold price increases.
Moreover, the psychological aspect of the market cycle should not be overlooked. The fifth wave in Elliott theory is not just a numerical phase — it’s a sentiment-driven move fueled by disbelief and FOMO (fear of missing out). This phase often occurs when most retail traders have exited or are shorting the market, expecting a breakdown, only to be caught off guard by a sudden breakout.
In addition to technical and psychological factors, fundamental catalysts could further fuel XRP’s rally. Developments such as the anticipated launch of spot XRP ETFs and increasing utility of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) in real-world finance can act as demand drivers. Institutional interest in Ripple-related products continues to build, and any major announcements on this front could act as accelerants for price movement.
Legal clarity also plays a crucial role. Ripple’s ongoing battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has been a major overhang for XRP. However, any favorable resolution or regulatory clarity could trigger a wave of institutional inflows — essentially serving as the kindling for the fifth wave fire.
On-chain metrics further support the bullish narrative. Whale accumulation of XRP has been steadily increasing, suggesting that larger investors are positioning themselves ahead of a potential breakout. Additionally, XRPL activity has seen a notable uptick in transaction volume and adoption, indicating growing utility and engagement with the network.
In summary, XRP appears to be positioned at a pivotal moment in its market structure. Historical precedent, technical indicators, and emerging fundamental catalysts all point toward a potential breakout in the coming months. While skepticism remains high — as is typical before a fifth wave surge — this very disbelief may set the stage for one of XRP’s most dramatic rallies yet. Should the scenario play out as projected, the $27 target, though ambitious, is not out of reach.