Solana ETFs Gain Momentum Amid Price Weakness: Is a Drop to $120 Inevitable?
While Solana-based exchange-traded products (ETPs) continue to attract substantial capital, the price of SOL itself is showing signs of weakening, having recently broken below a critical technical trendline. This divergence between institutional interest and spot market performance raises questions about the sustainability of Solana’s recent rally and whether deeper losses toward the $120 mark are on the horizon.
Institutional Inflows Paint a Bullish Picture for Solana ETFs
Solana’s spot ETFs have made a strong entrance, drawing significant attention from institutional investors. Within the first week of trading, these products amassed over $400 million in net inflows — the second-highest weekly inflow ever recorded for Solana-focused ETPs. The standout performer was the Bitwise Solana ETF (BSOL), which alone secured $401 million in assets under management by the end of October. This figure represented more than 9% of the total global Solana ETP market and accounted for 91% of total inflows during the week.
In contrast, Grayscale’s GSOL ETF saw much lower traction, attracting just $2.18 million in the same period. Despite this disparity, the combined strength of these ETFs signals growing confidence from institutions betting on Solana’s long-term potential.
As of now, the total assets under management across all Solana ETPs have reached $4.37 billion, with U.S.-listed funds contributing the bulk of recent inflows. Bitwise analysts estimate that a $1 billion influx into Solana products could drive a 34% increase in SOL’s price, assuming a price sensitivity (beta) of 1.5.
Price Action Tells a Different Story
Despite the strong ETF performance, SOL’s price has entered a bearish phase. The token has dropped more than 16% over the past week, reaching $148.11 — its lowest level since early July. This decline officially ended a long-standing 211-day uptrend, which had begun back in April. The breach of this trendline, along with SOL’s slide below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), suggests a shift in market sentiment.
Currently, SOL is hovering within a key support zone between $170 and $156. This daily order block, however, shows limited historical support, increasing the chances of further downside. If the $155 level fails to hold, the next major support area lies between $120 and $100 — a potential 20% to 30% correction from current levels.
Technical Indicators Flash Bearish Signals
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, has fallen to its lowest level since March 2025, suggesting SOL is entering oversold territory. While this could open the door for a short-term rebound, the lack of strong buying interest in the current zone casts doubt on a swift recovery.
If the price continues to trade below $160 and fails to reclaim the $155 support, a more prolonged bearish phase could unfold. In this scenario, SOL might test psychological levels closer to $120 or even $100 before stabilizing.
Macroeconomic Pressures Add to Downward Risks
Adding to the bearish pressure are broader macroeconomic conditions. A hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve triggered a $360 million outflow from the crypto market recently. While Solana ETFs managed to buck the trend and still posted positive inflows, the overall risk-off sentiment in financial markets could weigh heavily on risk assets like SOL in the near term.
ETF Performance Doesn’t Guarantee Price Stability
It’s important to note that while ETFs bring liquidity and attract institutional capital, they don’t always ensure immediate price appreciation for the underlying asset. In fact, strong ETF inflows can coincide with price corrections if broader market trends or technical indicators turn unfavorable, as is currently the case with Solana.
What Could Turn the Tide for SOL?
For SOL to regain bullish momentum, it must reclaim its lost support levels and establish a strong base above the 200-day EMA. A recovery above $170–$180 would send a strong signal that buyers are returning and could invalidate the bearish breakdown. Additionally, any signs of dovishness from central banks or a broader crypto market recovery could provide the macro support needed for a rebound.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Despite current price weakness, Solana’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. The network continues to see growing developer activity, institutional interest, and on-chain usage — all positive indicators for future price appreciation. Moreover, the successful launch of ETFs may encourage further integration with traditional finance, expanding Solana’s exposure to new capital sources.
Key Levels to Watch
– Immediate resistance: $160–$170
– Critical support: $155
– Breakdown target: $120–$100 range
– Reclaim zone for bullish reversal: Above $180
Conclusion: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Potential
Solana is currently at a crossroads. While ETF inflows reflect strong faith in the blockchain’s future, the price is under pressure from both technical breakdowns and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. If the $155 support fails to hold, a deeper correction toward $120 could play out. However, long-term investors may view such a pullback as a strategic accumulation opportunity, especially given the growing institutional adoption.
As always, market participants should monitor key support and resistance levels, watch for shifts in macro sentiment, and manage risk carefully in these volatile conditions.