Bitcoin’s price surged to a new monthly high of $111,129, marking its strongest level in November so far. The late-weekend rally, however, met with skepticism from traders who have grown wary of what they call the typical “Sunday pump” — a short-lived uptick in price that often fades once traditional financial markets reopen.
Despite this bullish move, Bitcoin remains trapped within a broader range, unable to decisively reclaim key resistance levels. Among them is the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which currently sits around $111,230. This EMA is widely viewed by analysts as a crucial trend indicator, and reclaiming it could pave the way for stronger upward momentum. But as of now, the price continues to hover just below this threshold.
Ted Pillows, a crypto investor, noted a resurgence in buying activity on Binance and Coinbase, which helped push BTC to its local high. However, he expressed concern that this momentum might not carry over into the weekdays, when institutional and traditional finance (TradFi) players return to the markets. “I’d love to see this kind of bidding during the week as well. But another Sunday pump? We all know how this usually ends,” he remarked.
Adding to the bearish caution, large Bitcoin holders — often referred to as whales — have resumed offloading their holdings. One particularly influential wallet has transferred over $55 million worth of BTC to exchanges like Kraken in recent days. Since Bitcoin’s 20% correction from its all-time high in October, this whale has sold more than $650 million in BTC, signaling ongoing distribution rather than accumulation.
Trader BitBull highlighted this selling pressure, noting that such large-scale offloads often precede or accompany price corrections. The continued selling from major holders suggests that many do not yet believe in the sustainability of Bitcoin’s latest gains.
Technical analyst Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of the 21-week EMA and warned that a failure to reclaim it could lead to further downside. “Bitcoin is quite close to retesting the 21-week EMA. A successful reclaim would be a strong signal for continuation,” he stated.
Meanwhile, some traders are setting their sights slightly higher. Pseudonymous analyst Exitpump suggested that if the bullish momentum continues through Sunday, Bitcoin could briefly touch $113,000 to $114,000. However, he added that such a move would likely lack conviction and might reverse quickly as the week begins.
Cas Abbe, an analyst with CryptoQuant, approached the situation from a Fibonacci retracement perspective. He pointed out that Bitcoin often finds short-term bottoms around the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which currently lies just above the $100,000 price point. This level has historically served as a buffer during corrections and might again act as support if the market turns lower.
While the short-term outlook remains uncertain, the broader market sentiment leans toward caution. The inability of bulls to reclaim critical support levels like $112,000, combined with ongoing whale distribution and weak volume during upward moves, keeps many traders on the sidelines.
To further complicate the picture, macroeconomic factors continue to exert influence on crypto markets. The recent bump in BTC price was partially attributed to renewed optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade relations. However, such geopolitical developments can quickly reverse, injecting volatility into an already sensitive market.
Institutional investors also appear to be in a wait-and-see mode. Although some indicators suggest increased interest from large players, particularly in Bitcoin ETFs and futures markets, the spot buying activity has not demonstrated the strength required to sustain a major breakout.
Furthermore, the crypto market is still digesting the implications of recent regulatory discussions in the U.S. and Europe. With upcoming decisions around stablecoin legislation, exchange oversight, and taxation, long-term investor confidence remains fragile. Any surprise announcement could quickly swing sentiment in either direction.
On-chain data also shows a mixed picture. While long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC, short-term traders are taking profits, contributing to increased volatility. This divergence between investor groups suggests a lack of consensus on where the market is headed next.
Another factor to watch is Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets. Over the past year, BTC has shown increasing sensitivity to movements in U.S. equities and global risk assets. A correction in the stock market or renewed strength in the U.S. dollar could dampen Bitcoin’s upside momentum.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s push past $111,000 brings a glimmer of bullish hope, traders remain cautious due to historical patterns of weekend rallies fading quickly, ongoing whale selling, and unresolved macroeconomic uncertainty. A clear break above $112,000 with strong volume would be a bullish signal, but until then, the market remains vulnerable to another correction.